Forecast for the Week
This week’s economic calendar is light, but there’s another potential development to monitor. Here’s what to watch this week:
- ISM Services will be released on Tuesday. This report shows how the service sector is holding up. Remember, individuals employed in this sector produce services rather than products.
- The only other report of significance will be the weekly Initial Jobless Claims report on Thursday. This week’s data will come after last week’s rise in claims, which signaled that the labor market continues its malaise.
In addition to those reports, one of the big questions this week will be where investors decide to park their money. Will it shift from the safe haven of Bonds into riskier assets? With economic data getting weaker week-by-week, can the rally in Bonds continue?
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.
When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving — and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.
To go one step further — a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.
As you can see in the chart below, weak economic data and the drama in Europe helped Bonds and home loan rates reach record best levels. I’ll continue to monitor this situation closely.
Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Jun 01, 2012)

The Mortgage Market Guide View
Home Inventory Made Easy:
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Once the home inventory is completed, it’s a good idea to have the homeowner’s insurance agent review the list to make sure the home has sufficient coverage.
Economic Calendar for the Week of June 04 – June 08
Date
|
ET
|
Economic Report
|
For
|
Estimate
|
Actual
|
Prior
|
Impact
|
Tue. June 05 |
10:00
|
ISM Services Index |
May
|
53.0
|
|
53.5
|
Moderate
|
Wed. June 06 |
08:30
|
Productivity |
Q1
|
0.7%
|
|
-0.5%
|
Moderate
|
Wed. June 06 |
02:00
|
Beige Book |
May
|
|
|
|
Moderate
|
Thu. June 07 |
08:30
|
Jobless Claims (Initial) |
6/2
|
375K
|
|
383K
|
Moderate
|
