MMG WEEKLY – WHAT ARE THEY SAYING THIS WEEK?

Forecast for the Week 

 

Economic data is in abundance this week and will give investors clues as to whether or not the economy is progressing now that QE3 is in full swing.

  • The economic data kicks right off on Monday with Retail Sales for September.
  • The manufacturing sector will also be in the news Monday with the New York State Manufacturing Index, followed by the Philadelphia Fed Index on Thursday.
  • Inflation news in the form of the Consumer Price Index will be delivered on Tuesday.
  • Housing news is coming on Wednesday with Housing Starts and Building Permits, and again on Friday with the Existing Home Sales Report. Housing data has been positive of late and the reports may give further signs that a housing recovery is in the making.
  • Thursday’s weekly Initial Jobless Claims data will be closely watched after last week’s large drop.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving — and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further — a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds rebounded late last week, helping home loan rates remain near record lows. I will continue to monitor this situation closely.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Oct 12, 2012)
Japanese Candlestick Chart
The Mortgage Market Guide View… 

Avoid These Alarming Statistics This Flu Season

Between November and March, your chances of contracting the flu increase by as much as 80%, according to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). In fact, anywhere from 5% to 20% of our country’s population contracts the flu every year. But that’s not the worst part. More than 200,000 of us are hospitalized because of it, and roughly 36,000 people actually die from it. That means lost work time and even lost medical expenses.

But there are some things you can do to keep yourself healthy. Be sure to share these tips with your coworkers, colleagues, and family members to help them avoid those alarming numbers and stay healthy this flu season.

Wash your hands: The flu is a contagious respiratory illness that is caused by the influenza virus. It is most commonly transmitted in one of two ways. The first is by inhaling saliva particles left behind by a sneeze or a cough from someone who is infected. The second, more common way is via hand-to-hand (or hand-to-object) contact. That’s why it is so important to regularly wash your hands, especially during flu season.

Keep your body hydrated by drinking plenty of water. The average adult needs to drink a minimum of eight, 8-ounce glasses a day to achieve the proper level of hydration. Doing so will help to keep your system flushed of various toxins.

Get your exercise. Aside from the obvious reasons, aerobic exercise causes your heart to pump larger quantities of blood at a faster rate. In turn, your breathing rate increases in order to transfer oxygen from the lungs to your blood. The end result is that you sweat. This process has been shown to increase virus-killing cells within the body.

Eat a balanced and healthy diet. Regular consumption of certain food items has actually been shown to reduce colds and flu. Yogurt and garlic are two in particular. Any vegetables or fruits that are dark green, red, or yellow in color should also be a part of your normal repertoire, as they are chock full of phytochemicals, natural plant chemicals that boost the potency of the vitamins that are in the food you ingest.

Get a flu shot every fall. The CDC recommends this type of shot for anyone who wants to avoid the flu, but you should consult with your doctor to see if it’s right for you.

Economic Calendar for the Week of October 15 – October 19

ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Mon. October 15
08:30
Retail Sales
Sept
NA
0.9%
HIGH
Mon. October 15
08:30
Retail Sales ex-auto
Sept
NA
0.8%
HIGH
Mon. October 15
08:30
Empire State Index
Oct
NA
-10.4
HIGH
Tue. October 16
08:30
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Sept
NA
0.6%
HIGH
Tue. October 16
08:30
Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Sept
NA
0.1%
HIGH
Tue. October 16
09:15
Industrial Production
Sept
NA
-1.2%
Moderate
Tue. October 16
09:15
Capacity Utilization
Sept
NA
78.2%
Moderate
Wed. October 17
08:30
Building Permits
Sept
NA
803K
Moderate
Wed. October 17
08:30
Housing Starts
Sept
NA
750K
Moderate
Thu. October 18
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
10/13
NA
NA
Moderate
Thu. October 18
10:00
Philadelphia Fed Index
Oct
NA
-1.9
HIGH
Fri. October 19
10:00
Existing Home Sales
Sept
NA
4.82M
Moderate

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.
Mortgage Market Guide, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated. Mortgage Market Guide, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email. You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.
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