Forecast for the Week 
The markets are closed Monday in observance of the Presidents’ Day holiday, but look for several important reports later in the week.
- Housing news hits the wires, with Housing Starts and Building Permits on Wednesday and Existing Home Sales on Thursday.
- We’ll get a double dose of inflation news with Wednesday’s wholesale-measuring Producer Price Index, followed by the Consumer Price Index on Thursday.
- Also on Thursday, Initial Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed Index will be reported.
In addition, the minutes from the January meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will be released on Wednesday at 2:00pm ET. With all the differing opinions of the Fed governors and the chatter about Quantitative Easing, this has the potential to move the markets.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.
When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving — and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.
To go one step further — a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.
As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates have been impacted by the rally in Stocks. However, home loan rates remain near record lows and I’ll continue to monitor them closely.
Rituals of Success How to Get More Done By Thinking Less
If you’ve ever felt like you can’t find time to get to your list of important things, you’re not alone. New York Times best selling author Tony Schwarz says almost 75 percent of workers around the world feel disengaged at work and that the “more, bigger, faster” mantra is to blame. We are busier than ever, trying to get more done with fewer resources.
Schwarz suggests everything we do–whether checking email, exercising, or resisting the temptation to eat an extra cookie–often requires thinking, and thinking takes energy. So, if you want to get more done you must actually think less. In 1911, philosopher A.N. Whitehead wrote: “It is a profoundly erroneous truism that we should cultivate the habit of thinking of what we are doing. The precise opposite is the case. Civilization advances by extending the number of operations we can perform without thinking about them.”
The answer, according to Schwarz, is to make important things automatic, what he calls a ritual. Rituals are highly specific behaviors performed at a specific time. He reports the five rituals that have made the most difference in his life are:
- Sticking to a bedtime that ensures he gets at least 8 hours of rest.
- Working out first thing in the morning, whether he feels like it or not.
- Starting his workday by doing the most important task first–decided the night before–and working only in 90-minute time blocks with a definite break in between.
- Writing down his good ideas immediately, so they aren’t bouncing around in his mind all day, or worse, forgotten entirely.
- When upset by someone or something, he ritually asks how he can see the same set of facts in a more hopeful or empowering way.
Remember, the less you have to think about your goals as you perform the steps to achieve them, the more likely you are to check them off your list.
Economic Calendar for the Week of February 18 – February 22
|
Date
|
ET
|
Economic Report
|
For
|
Estimate
|
Actual
|
Prior
|
Impact
|
| Wed. February 20 |
08:30
|
Housing Starts |
Jan
|
910K
|
954K
|
Moderate
|
|
| Wed. February 20 |
08:30
|
Building Permits |
Jan
|
918K
|
903K
|
Moderate
|
|
| Wed. February 20 |
08:30
|
Producer Price Index (PPI) |
Jan
|
0.3%
|
-0.2%
|
Moderate
|
|
| Wed. February 20 |
08:30
|
Core Producer Price Index (PPI) |
Jan
|
0.1%
|
0.1%
|
Moderate
|
|
| Wed. February 20 |
02:00
|
FOMC Minutes |
1/30
|
NA
|
NA
|
HIGH
|
|
| Thu. February 21 |
08:30
|
Jobless Claims (Initial) |
2/16
|
358K
|
341K
|
Moderate
|
|
| Thu. February 21 |
08:30
|
Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) |
Jan
|
0.2%
|
0.1%
|
HIGH
|
|
| Thu. February 21 |
08:30
|
Consumer Price Index (CPI) |
Jan
|
0.1%
|
0.0%
|
HIGH
|
|
| Thu. February 21 |
10:00
|
Existing Home Sales |
Jan
|
4.94M
|
4.94M
|
Moderate
|
|
| Thu. February 21 |
10:00
|
Philadelphia Fed Index |
Feb
|
1.5
|
-5.8
|
HIGH
|
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Mortgage Info By Michelle Wickett 