MMG WEEKLY – WHAT ARE THEY SAYING THIS WEEK?

MMG WeeklyForecast for the Week 

A busy week of reports is ahead, with news on housing, manufacturing, consumer sentiment, U.S. growth and inflation.

  • The week starts and ends with a measure of how the consumer is feeling with Tuesday’s Consumer Confidence Report and Friday’s Consumer Sentiment Index.
  • There’s a double dose of housing news on Tuesday, with the Case Shiller Index and New Home Sales. Plus, look for Pending Home Sales on Wednesday.
  • We’ll get a sense of how the economy is doing with Wednesday’s Durable Goods Orders, which measures orders for products used for an extended period of time, and Thursday’s Gross Domestic Product, the biggest picture of economic activity.
  • Also on Thursday, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be reported.
  • Ending the week, Friday brings Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, along with Personal Income and Spending and the ISM Index.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving — and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further — a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates remain steady near record best levels. I’ll continue to monitor them closely.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Feb 22, 2013)
Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market Guide View… 

Best Days and Times for Posting to Social Media

More than nine out of ten businesses spend six or more hours online each week maintaining a presence on social media. And while you probably already know the benefits of social media–better engagement with your market, better website traffic, improved sales–you might not realize that some days (and times!) are better than others for posting to social media.

Social media analytics firm Socialbakers showed Facebook posts achieve 50% of their total reach within 30 minutes of being posted. In other words, half of all the people who will see your post have seen it within the first half-hour after you post it. Not only that, by the time 90 minutes have elapsed, your average post reaches less than 2% of total audience for the next seven hours before it drops off completely.

That’s why timing your posts properly is the best strategy. Here are the best days and times to post according to current research from Social Caffeine:

Twitter BEST: 1 p.m. to 3 p.m., Monday through Thursday WORST: 8 p.m. to 9 a.m. Avoid after 3 p.m. Friday and weekends

Facebook BEST: 1 p.m. to 4 p.m., peaking on Wednesdays at 3 p.m. WORST: 8 p.m. to 8 a.m., avoiding weekends

LinkedIn BEST: 7 a.m. to 9 a.m. OR 5 p.m. to 6 p.m., Tuesday through Thursday WORST: 10 p.m. to 6 a.m., avoid Monday and Friday

Pinterest BEST: 2 p.m. to 4 p.m. or 8 p.m. to 1 a.m., peaking on Saturday morning WORST: 5 p.m. to 7 p.m. and late afternoons

Economic Calendar for the Week of February 25 – March 01

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Tue. February 26
09:00
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Dec
6.5%
5.5%
Moderate
Tue. February 26
10:00
New Home Sales
Jan
385K
369K
Moderate
Tue. February 26
10:00
Consumer Confidence
Feb
62.0
58.6
Moderate
Wed. February 27
08:30
Durable Goods Orders
Jan
-4.0%
4.3%
Moderate
Wed. February 27
10:00
Pending Home Sales
Jan
1.0%
-4.3%
Moderate
Thu. February 28
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
2/23
360K
362K
Moderate
Thu. February 28
08:30
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Q4
0.5%
-0.1%
Moderate
Thu. February 28
09:45
Chicago PMI
Feb
54.0
55.6
HIGH
Fri. March 01
08:30
Personal Income
Jan
-2.3%
2.6%
Moderate
Fri. March 01
08:30
Personal Spending
Jan
0.2%
0.2%
Moderate
Fri. March 01
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
Jan
0.2%
0.0%
HIGH
Fri. March 01
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
YOY
NA
1.4%
HIGH
Fri. March 01
10:00
ISM Index
Feb
52.4
53.1
HIGH
Fri. March 01
10:00
Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)
Feb
76.3
76.3
Moderate

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

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