Forecast for the Week 
The economic calendar will be busy all week. Plus the Fed meets.
- The week begins on Monday with Personal Consumption and Expenditures, the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, as well as Personal Income and Personal Spending.
- In housing news, Pending Home Sales will also be released Monday, followed by Tuesday’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index.
- We’ll get a sense of how the consumer is feeling with Tuesday’s Consumer Confidence reading for April.
- Several key manufacturing reports will be released, beginning on Tuesday with the Chicago PMI followed by Wednesday’s ISM Index.
- Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be reported on Thursday. Last week, jobless claims fell to 339,000 after averaging 362,000 in the previous four weeks.
- On Friday, we end the week with the often market-moving Jobs Report for April, which includes Non-Farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate. ISM Services Index will also be reported.
In addition, the Fed’s regularly scheduled two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee begins on Tuesday, with their Policy Statement scheduled for 2:15 p.m. ET on Wednesday.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.
When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving – and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.
To go one step further – a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.
As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates continue to remain near historic best levels. I’ll be watching their movement closely.
Chart: Fannie Mae 3.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Apr 26, 2013)
6 Keys to Being Remarkable
“The key to success in any field is, to a large extent, a matter of practicing a specific task for a total of around 10,000 hours.” Malcolm Gladwell, Outliers, 2011
“Strenuous individual application is the price paid for distinction; excellence of any sort is placed beyond the reach of indolence.” Samuel Smiles, Self-Help, 1859
“We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.” Aristotle, 345 BC
The myth that people are born talented is rapidly dispelling. The scientific community is at last catching up with what even Aristotle knew-the difference between success and non-success, outstanding skill and mediocrity, is a matter of dedication and time rather than innate ability. But can the way you practice make a difference? Yes, says Tony Schwartz, author of The Way We’re Working Isn’t Working, who offers six principles for becoming really good at anything:
- Pursue your passion. Passion will keep you motivated better than anything. If you can’t be passionate, find something else or you may burn out.
- Hard work first. Most experts-and experts who study experts-say that practicing first thing in the morning when you have the most energy is best.
- Practice intensely, but not too long. Working without interruption for short periods of no longer than 90 minutes with short breaks-and not longer than 4.5 hours each day-seems to be the norm for top performers.
- Get feedback in small doses. Too much advice too frequently can impede learning and make you gun shy.
- Refresh regularly. All work and no play… stinks. And it won’t help you in the long run. Plus, if it’s breakthroughs you want, rest is the best thing for activating your creative, right-hemisphere.
- Ritualize practice. Time-blocking your practice ensures you don’t have to expend any energy thinking about when you’ll work.
Please feel free to pass these tips along to any clients and colleagues who may benefit!
Economic Calendar for the Week of April 29 – May 3
|
Date
|
ET
|
Economic Report
|
For
|
Estimate
|
Actual
|
Prior
|
Impact
|
| Mon. April 29 |
08:30
|
Personal Income |
Mar
|
0.3%
|
1.1%
|
Moderate
|
|
| Mon. April 29 |
08:30
|
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE |
Mar
|
0.1%
|
0.1%
|
HIGH
|
|
| Mon. April 29 |
08:30
|
Pending Home Sales |
Mar
|
0.1%
|
-0.4%
|
Moderate
|
|
| Mon. April 29 |
08:30
|
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE |
YoY
|
NA
|
1.3%
|
Moderate
|
|
| Mon. April 29 |
08:30
|
Personal Spending |
Mar
|
0.1%
|
0.7%
|
Moderate
|
|
| Tue. April 30 |
08:30
|
Employment Cost Index (ECI) |
Q1
|
0.5%
|
0.5%
|
Moderate
|
|
| Tue. April 30 |
09:00
|
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index |
Feb
|
8.7%
|
8.1%
|
Moderate
|
|
| Tue. April 30 |
09:45
|
Chicago PMI |
Apr
|
52.0
|
52.4
|
Moderate
|
|
| Tue. April 30 |
10:00
|
Consumer Confidence |
Apr
|
61.0
|
59.7
|
Moderate
|
|
| Wed. May 01 |
08:15
|
ADP National Employment Report |
Apr
|
155K
|
158K
|
Moderate
|
|
| Wed. May 01 |
10:00
|
ISM Index |
Apr
|
51.0
|
51.3
|
Moderate
|
|
| Wed. May 01 |
02:00
|
FOMC Meeting |
May
|
0.25%
|
0.25%
|
HIGH
|
|
| Thu. May 02 |
08:30
|
Jobless Claims (Initial) |
4/27
|
346K
|
339K
|
Moderate
|
|
| Thu. May 02 |
08:30
|
Productivity |
Q1
|
1.2%
|
-1.9%
|
Moderate
|
|
| Fri. May 03 |
08:30
|
Non-farm Payrolls |
Apr
|
150K
|
88K
|
HIGH
|
|
| Fri. May 03 |
08:30
|
Unemployment Rate |
Apr
|
7.6%
|
7.6%
|
HIGH
|
|
| Fri. May 03 |
08:30
|
Average Work Week |
Apr
|
34.6
|
34.6
|
Moderate
|
|
| Fri. May 03 |
10:00
|
ISM Services Index |
Apr
|
54.0
|
54.4
|
Moderate
|
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Mortgage Info By Michelle Wickett 