Forecast for the Week 
The calendar will be busy in the second half of the week, with several key reports.
- On Wednesday, the latest FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released and these always have the potential to move the markets, especially if the minutes reveal more about the Fed’s plans to taper Bond purchases.
- Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be released on Thursday. Last week, Initial Jobless Claims fell to 343,000, below expectations, but the number has been stuck in the current range for quite some time.
- Ending the week, we’ll get a read on inflation at the wholesale level with the Producer Price Index. Plus, the Consumer Sentiment Index for July will be released.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.
When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving — and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.
To go one step further — a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.
As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates worsened late last week after the positive Jobs Report for June. I’ll continue to monitor their movement closely.
Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday July 05, 2013)
The Mortgage Market Guide View…
LinkedIn Connections
To Accept or Not To Accept: That Is The Question
LinkedIn can be a powerful tool for getting introduced, growing referrals, and expanding strategic business relationships. But did you know you can also use it to support just about any business goal you have?
Remember that on LinkedIn, it’s not the player with the most connections who wins the game; it’s the player with the most genuine connections. In the early days of LinkedIn, you would be required to know your connection in order to make the request. But the rules have been expanded and now there’s a way to connect with practically anyone. How do you select who to connect with and who to ignore?
Use the introduction machine. Trying to make connections organically can take years, but LinkedIn can help you identify power players, and get introduced fast.
Weakest links. The problem with accepting any connection request is if you don’t know most of them, you make links very weak. Think of it this way: How likely will you be to ask total strangers for favors? After all, they don’t really know you.
Enter the Favor Test. In her new book, Work Smarter with LinkedIn, Alexandra Samuel describes her method. The Favor Test is simply this: Would you be willing to do a favor for this person, or ask them to do one for you? According to Samuel, “A favor isn’t constrained to an introduction; other kinds of requests come into play on LinkedIn…. Would you support my charity? Will you attend my conference? Can you review my book?”
Two way street. The point of the Favor Test, according to Samuel, is to utilize the two-way quality of connections. When you make introductions or meet a key individual, LinkedIn shows some power. But when you reach beyond sales targets or gaining referrals–and start to create an asset you can share with people you believe in–you begin to build a network that can help support just about any business goal you have.
Take a moment to review your LinkedIn connections and see if they meet the Favor Test.
Economic Calendar for the Week of July 08 – July 12
|
Date
|
ET
|
Economic Report
|
For
|
Estimate
|
Actual
|
Prior
|
Impact
|
| Wed. July 10 |
02:00
|
FOMC Minutes |
6/19
|
HIGH
|
|||
| Thu. July 11 |
08:30
|
Jobless Claims (Initial) |
7/6
|
NA
|
343K
|
Moderate
|
|
| Fri. July 12 |
08:30
|
Producer Price Index (PPI) |
Jun
|
NA
|
0.5%
|
Moderate
|
|
| Fri. July 12 |
08:30
|
Core Producer Price Index (PPI) |
Jun
|
NA
|
0.1%
|
Moderate
|
|
| Fri. July 12 |
10:00
|
Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM) |
Jul
|
NA
|
51.6
|
Moderate
|
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Mortgage Info By Michelle Wickett 