MMG WEEKLY – WHAT ARE THEY SAYING THIS WEEK?

MMG Weekly / Vantage Production.blueForecast for the Week

The calendar is full this week, with news on housing, manufacturing and the all-important Jobs Report for July.

  • Economic reports kick right off on Monday with Pending Home Sales, followed by the S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index on Tuesday.
  • Tuesday also brings the Consumer Confidence Report.
  • A plethora of data will be released on Wednesday, including Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the ADP Private Employment Report.
  • In the manufacturing sector, look for Chicago PMI on Wednesday and the ISM Index on Thursday.
  • As usual, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be reported on Thursday.
  • And despite the long list of reports, they will take a backseat to the July Non-farm Payrolls Report and the Unemployment Rate, set to be delivered on Friday.
  • Also on Friday, inflation data from Personal Consumption Expenditures will be released, along with Personal Income and Personal Spending.

In addition, Wednesday will be an important day as the Fed’s monetary policy statement from its FOMC meeting is set to be released at 2:00 p.m. ET. This always has the potential to move the markets.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving — and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further — a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds have attempted to rally above key technical levels. I’ll continue to monitor their movement closely, especially in the heavy news week ahead.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday July 26, 2013)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

Beware Bogus Charges on Your Mobile-Phone Bill
Take these steps to protect yourself from mobile cramming.
By Miriam Cross, Kiplinger.com

John Breyault is vice-president of public policy, telecommunications and fraud at the National Consumers League in Washington, D.C.

What is mobile cramming, and why is it a problem?
Mobile cramming refers to any unauthorized charge that appears on your bill. The fraud was initially associated with landline phones and is migrating to wireless phones. Cramming occurs when a third party signs you up for a service that you don’t know you’re paying for. Maybe you were asked to enter your number on a Web site to access a joke of the day, for example, or a horoscope. This is the first part of a “double opt in.” Then you might get a text message saying something like “reply STOP if you don’t want this.” Considering it spam, you delete it. As a result, you get signed up for these recurring charges, typically about $10 a month. Because the charges are buried in multipage phone bills, consumers don’t notice and might get charged repeatedly over the course of many months.

How can people protect themselves?
Treat your cell-phone number as you would cash or a credit card. Don’t just give it out. If you’re asked to enter a number to access information online that you can find free elsewhere, it could be a scam.

What should people look for on their bills?
These charges can be labeled practically anything. Carriers do a fair job of breaking out their fees, so look for additional services or miscellaneous charges that are not associated with your regular service.

If you find illegitimate charges on your bill, what should you do?
Complain to the carrier and ask it to block third-party billing. Let the regulatory agencies know. If you report the problem via our online complaint form at www.fraud.org, we’ll share that information with more than 90 law-enforcement and consumer-protection agencies, including the Federal Trade Commission and the Federal Communications Commission.

What about cramming on credit card bills? Does the same advice apply?
Again, it’s important for consumers to regularly review their credit and debit card bills to make sure they’re not getting hit with fraudulent charges. Report a suspicious charge to your credit card company or bank as soon as possible; consumers aren’t usually charged for fraudulent use of their cards if they dispute it promptly. With mobile cramming, though, carriers are under no legal obligation to waive the fees or pay for fraud that occurs over their system.

Reprinted with permission. All Contents ©2013 The Kiplinger Washington Editors. Kiplinger.com.

Economic Calendar for the Week of July 29 – August 02

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Mon. July 29
10:00
Pending Home Sales
Jun
NA
6.7%
Moderate
Tue. July 30
09:00
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
May
NA
12.1%
Moderate
Tue. July 30
10:00
Consumer Confidence
Jul
NA
81.4
Moderate
Wed. July 31
08:15
ADP National Employment Report
Jul
NA
188K
HIGH
Wed. July 31
08:30
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Q2
NA
1.8%
Moderate
Wed. July 31
09:45
Chicago PMI
Jul
NA
51.6
HIGH
Wed. July 31
02:00
FOMC Meeting
Jul
NA
NA
HIGH
Thu. August 01
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
7/27
NA
NA
Moderate
Thu. August 01
10:00
ISM Index
Jul
NA
50.9
HIGH
Fri. August 02
08:30
Non-farm Payrolls
Jul
NA
195K
HIGH
Fri. August 02
08:30
Unemployment Rate
Jul
NA
7.6%
HIGH
Fri. August 02
08:30
Hourly Earnings
Jul
NA
0.4%
HIGH
Fri. August 02
08:30
Average Work Week
Jul
NA
34.5
HIGH
Fri. August 02
08:30
Personal Income
Jul
NA
0.5%
Moderate
Fri. August 02
08:30
Personal Spending
Jun
NA
0.5%
Moderate
Fri. August 02
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
Jun
NA
0.1%
HIGH
Fri. August 02
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
Jun
NA
1.1%
HIGH

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

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