Forecast for the Week 
The calendar is full this week, with news on housing, manufacturing and the all-important Jobs Report for July.
- Economic reports kick right off on Monday with Pending Home Sales, followed by the S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index on Tuesday.
- Tuesday also brings the Consumer Confidence Report.
- A plethora of data will be released on Wednesday, including Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the ADP Private Employment Report.
- In the manufacturing sector, look for Chicago PMI on Wednesday and the ISM Index on Thursday.
- As usual, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be reported on Thursday.
- And despite the long list of reports, they will take a backseat to the July Non-farm Payrolls Report and the Unemployment Rate, set to be delivered on Friday.
- Also on Friday, inflation data from Personal Consumption Expenditures will be released, along with Personal Income and Personal Spending.
In addition, Wednesday will be an important day as the Fed’s monetary policy statement from its FOMC meeting is set to be released at 2:00 p.m. ET. This always has the potential to move the markets.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.
When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving — and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.
To go one step further — a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.
As you can see in the chart below, Bonds have attempted to rally above key technical levels. I’ll continue to monitor their movement closely, especially in the heavy news week ahead.
Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday July 26, 2013)
The Mortgage Market Guide View…
Beware Bogus Charges on Your Mobile-Phone Bill
Take these steps to protect yourself from mobile cramming.
By Miriam Cross, Kiplinger.com
John Breyault is vice-president of public policy, telecommunications and fraud at the National Consumers League in Washington, D.C.
What is mobile cramming, and why is it a problem?
Mobile cramming refers to any unauthorized charge that appears on your bill. The fraud was initially associated with landline phones and is migrating to wireless phones. Cramming occurs when a third party signs you up for a service that you don’t know you’re paying for. Maybe you were asked to enter your number on a Web site to access a joke of the day, for example, or a horoscope. This is the first part of a “double opt in.” Then you might get a text message saying something like “reply STOP if you don’t want this.” Considering it spam, you delete it. As a result, you get signed up for these recurring charges, typically about $10 a month. Because the charges are buried in multipage phone bills, consumers don’t notice and might get charged repeatedly over the course of many months.
How can people protect themselves?
Treat your cell-phone number as you would cash or a credit card. Don’t just give it out. If you’re asked to enter a number to access information online that you can find free elsewhere, it could be a scam.
What should people look for on their bills?
These charges can be labeled practically anything. Carriers do a fair job of breaking out their fees, so look for additional services or miscellaneous charges that are not associated with your regular service.
If you find illegitimate charges on your bill, what should you do?
Complain to the carrier and ask it to block third-party billing. Let the regulatory agencies know. If you report the problem via our online complaint form at www.fraud.org, we’ll share that information with more than 90 law-enforcement and consumer-protection agencies, including the Federal Trade Commission and the Federal Communications Commission.
What about cramming on credit card bills? Does the same advice apply?
Again, it’s important for consumers to regularly review their credit and debit card bills to make sure they’re not getting hit with fraudulent charges. Report a suspicious charge to your credit card company or bank as soon as possible; consumers aren’t usually charged for fraudulent use of their cards if they dispute it promptly. With mobile cramming, though, carriers are under no legal obligation to waive the fees or pay for fraud that occurs over their system.
Reprinted with permission. All Contents ©2013 The Kiplinger Washington Editors. Kiplinger.com.
Economic Calendar for the Week of July 29 – August 02
|
Date
|
ET
|
Economic Report
|
For
|
Estimate
|
Actual
|
Prior
|
Impact
|
| Mon. July 29 |
10:00
|
Pending Home Sales |
Jun
|
NA
|
6.7%
|
Moderate
|
|
| Tue. July 30 |
09:00
|
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index |
May
|
NA
|
12.1%
|
Moderate
|
|
| Tue. July 30 |
10:00
|
Consumer Confidence |
Jul
|
NA
|
81.4
|
Moderate
|
|
| Wed. July 31 |
08:15
|
ADP National Employment Report |
Jul
|
NA
|
188K
|
HIGH
|
|
| Wed. July 31 |
08:30
|
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) |
Q2
|
NA
|
1.8%
|
Moderate
|
|
| Wed. July 31 |
09:45
|
Chicago PMI |
Jul
|
NA
|
51.6
|
HIGH
|
|
| Wed. July 31 |
02:00
|
FOMC Meeting |
Jul
|
NA
|
NA
|
HIGH
|
|
| Thu. August 01 |
08:30
|
Jobless Claims (Initial) |
7/27
|
NA
|
NA
|
Moderate
|
|
| Thu. August 01 |
10:00
|
ISM Index |
Jul
|
NA
|
50.9
|
HIGH
|
|
| Fri. August 02 |
08:30
|
Non-farm Payrolls |
Jul
|
NA
|
195K
|
HIGH
|
|
| Fri. August 02 |
08:30
|
Unemployment Rate |
Jul
|
NA
|
7.6%
|
HIGH
|
|
| Fri. August 02 |
08:30
|
Hourly Earnings |
Jul
|
NA
|
0.4%
|
HIGH
|
|
| Fri. August 02 |
08:30
|
Average Work Week |
Jul
|
NA
|
34.5
|
HIGH
|
|
| Fri. August 02 |
08:30
|
Personal Income |
Jul
|
NA
|
0.5%
|
Moderate
|
|
| Fri. August 02 |
08:30
|
Personal Spending |
Jun
|
NA
|
0.5%
|
Moderate
|
|
| Fri. August 02 |
08:30
|
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE |
Jun
|
NA
|
0.1%
|
HIGH
|
|
| Fri. August 02 |
08:30
|
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE |
Jun
|
NA
|
1.1%
|
HIGH
|
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