MMG WEEKLY – WHAT ARE THEY SAYING THIS WEEK?

MMG Weekly / Vantage Production.blueForecast for the Week

Another full week of economic reports is ahead, with news on inflation, housing, Consumer Confidence and more.

  • Housing data is plentiful this week. First up, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index will be released on Tuesday, followed by New Home Sales on Wednesday and Pending Home Sales on Thursday.
  • Tuesday also brings Consumer Confidence. The Consumer Sentiment Index will be delivered on Friday.
  • Durable Goods Orders will be released on Wednesday. This report measures orders for items that last for an extended period of time.
  • Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be reported as usual on Thursday.
  • Also on Thursday, we will see the third and final estimate of Gross Domestic Product for the second quarter. The initial reading was a rather weak 1.7 percent while the second reading came in at 2.5 percent.
  • Ending the week, look for Personal Income and Spending along with Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s favorite read on inflation, on Friday.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving — and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further — a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, the Fed’s decision not to taper its Bond purchases led to a huge rally. I’ll be watching closely to see if Bonds and home loan rates can hold on to these improvements.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday September 20, 2013)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

Leave a Message at the Beep
4 Secrets to More Effective Voicemails

Even with the wide variety of ways to keep in touch, people are busier than ever. Knowing how to leave more effective voicemails is a key business-building skill.

Here are four tips to help you get better results when you leave a message:

Don’t ramble. Before you pick up the phone, know your focus. If the voicemail picks up, highlight that important point, leaving the remaining details for the actual discussion.

What’s in it for me? Also before you call, make sure you’ve thought through what the person on the other end cares about most. Craft your message around that singular issue and you’ll get attention.

Take it up a notch. There’s no need to leave a boring message. A lack of energy in your message could convey disinterest, or worse, laziness. It will take around two seconds to raise your energy level–sit up, straighten your back, take a nice full breath, you can even try standing up. But whatever you do, always smile–voice actors have long used this technique to convey a pleasant, energetic tone.

Phone home. Call your own phone and leave some trial messages–perhaps a new version of another message you left for someone earlier in the day. When you get home, take a mental note on what works, what doesn’t, and what you could do to improve. You’ll hear it loud and clear.

A little polish on your voice message skills can help increase your productivity, the number of responses you receive, and the reception you get on the call-back.

Feel free to pass these helpful tips along to your team, clients, and colleagues.

Economic Calendar for the Week of September 23 – September 27

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Tue. September 24
09:00
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Jul
NA
12.1%
Moderate
Tue. September 24
10:00
Consumer Confidence
Sept
NA
81.5
Moderate
Wed. September 25
08:30
Durable Goods Orders
Aug
NA
-7.4%
Moderate
Wed. September 25
10:00
New Home Sales
Aug
NA
394K
Moderate
Thu. September 26
08:30
GDP Chain Deflator
Q2
NA
0.8%
Moderate
Thu. September 26
08:30
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Q2
NA
2.5%
Moderate
Thu. September 26
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
9/21
NA
309K
Moderate
Thu. September 26
10:00
Pending Home Sales
Aug
NA
-1.3%
Moderate
Fri. September 27
08:30
Personal Income
Aug
NA
0.1%
Moderate
Fri. September 27
08:30
Personal Spending
Aug
NA
0.1%
Moderate
Fri. September 27
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
Aug
NA
0.1%
HIGH
Fri. September 27
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
YOY
NA
1.2%
HIGH
Fri. September 27
10:00
Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)
Sept
NA
76.8
Moderate

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