Forecast for the Week 
The debt ceiling debate, budget fight, and the Jobs Report for September are three key items to look for this week.
- Economic data kicks off on Monday with manufacturing numbers from the Chicago PMI report, followed by national manufacturing data from the ISM Index on Tuesday.
- Wednesday will bring the first leg of the week’s jobs data with the ADP National Employment Report.
- As usual, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be reported on Thursday. Claims have averaged near 300,000 the past three weeks.
- ISM Services Index, a national non-manufacturing index, will also be released on Thursday.
- That leads us to Friday’s Non-farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate, which will be closely dissected by both Wall Street and the Federal Reserve.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.
When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving — and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.
To go one step further — a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.
As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates improved last week due to the uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling and possible government shutdown. I will be watching these stories closely as they continue to unfold.
Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday September 27, 2013)
The Mortgage Market Guide View…
Productivity Points
Guilt-Free Naptimes at Work?
The health benefits of a good night’s sleep, optimally between 6.5 and 7.5 hours a night, are myriad and well known: hormonal rebalancing, cell repair, improved heart function, better memory, clearer thinking. Restful sleep helps our bodies sort through a rough day and prepare for the joys and challenges of the following day.
As bad as poor sleep is for your health, the costs at work aren’t what you might expect. According to one study by the Society for Neuroscience in Washington D.C., “The brain of the sleep-deprived individual is working normally sometimes, but intermittently suffers from something akin to power failure.”
People who only got four hours of sleep could actually perform the same task with the same amount of accuracy as someone with 8-hours of sleep.. that is, until the task had to be repeated…because the area most affected by lack of sleep is when trying to regain focus. Where a rested person’s brain can compensate for a loss of focus, a sleep-deprived person can’t refocus with similar ability.
Sleep experts have discovered regular daytime napping increases your alertness, memory, creativity, perception, stamina, motor skills, and accuracy. It also reduces stress and lowers risk of heart attack. A quick 20-minute nap for men, and up to 40 minutes for women, is all you will need to experience these benefits for yourself.
Taking regular naps–even if only in the car during part of your lunch break–is a great way to increase productivity and get more enjoyment out of your work and life. And it’s definitely not something to feel guilty about.
Feel free to pass these helpful tips along to your clients and colleagues!
Economic Calendar for the Week of September 30 – October 04
|
Date
|
ET
|
Economic Report
|
For
|
Estimate
|
Actual
|
Prior
|
Impact
|
| Mon. September 30 |
09:45
|
Chicago PMI |
Sep
|
NA
|
NA
|
HIGH
|
|
| Tue. October 01 |
10:00
|
ISM Index |
Sep
|
NA
|
NA
|
HIGH
|
|
| Wed. October 02 |
08:15
|
ADP National Employment Report |
Sep
|
NA
|
176K
|
HIGH
|
|
| Thu. October 03 |
08:30
|
Jobless Claims (Initial) |
9/28
|
NA
|
305K
|
Moderate
|
|
| Thu. October 03 |
10:00
|
ISM Services Index |
Sep
|
NA
|
58.6
|
Moderate
|
|
| Fri. October 04 |
08:30
|
Non-farm Payrolls |
Sep
|
NA
|
169K
|
HIGH
|
|
| Fri. October 04 |
08:30
|
Unemployment Rate |
Sep
|
NA
|
7.5%
|
HIGH
|
|
| Fri. October 04 |
08:30
|
Average Work Week |
Sep
|
NA
|
0.2%
|
HIGH
|
|
| Fri. October 04 |
08:30
|
Hourly Earnings |
Sep
|
NA
|
34.5
|
HIGH
|
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Mortgage Info By Michelle Wickett 