Forecast for the Week 
The biggest news regarding this week’s economic calendar isn’t when reports are scheduled to be released, but if they will be.
- Economic data doesn’t begin until Thursday with the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims report. Will the report be released by the Labor Department if the government is still shutdown?
- On Friday, Retail Sales and the Producer Price Index are set to be released by the Commerce Department and the Labor Department, respectively. Will these reports be released?
- Also on Friday, Consumer Sentiment will be reported.
In addition, the minutes from the September 18 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will be released. The text will be closely scrutinized, especially regarding when the Fed may taper its Bond purchase program known as Quantitative Easing, which has helped keep home loan rates attractive.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.
When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving — and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.
To go one step further — a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.
As you can see in the chart below, concerns about the government shutdown and debt ceiling have halted the recent rally in the Bond markets. I’ll be watching these stories closely for the latest developments.
Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday October 04, 2013)
The Mortgage Market Guide View…
Safe Driving
There’s an App for That!
Texting and driving is illegal in most states, but you still see it happening even with startling facts like these already in wide circulation:
- Driving and texting impedes reaction time by the same amount as a blood-alcohol concentration of .08 percent. University of Utah
- Almost 9 out of 10 Americans think texting while driving should be outlawed, almost the same number admit doing it. Harris Interactive
- Text messaging keeps your eyes off the road for 4.6 out of every 6 seconds. If you’re driving 55 miles an hour, that’s the length of a football field. Virginia Tech Transportation Institute
Thankfully, cell phone application developers are on the job. Check out the latest apps:
Textecution ($29.99 one time). Senses the driver’s speed and cuts off incoming and outgoing texts if the vehicle is moving faster than 10 miles per hour. Passengers may use texting features with permission from an administrator (such as a parent or employer). Android only.
BizProtect ($6.95 monthly/$76.45 annually). According to the Network of Employers for Traffic Safety, on the job highway accidents cost employers over $24,500 per occurrence. BizProtect allows companies to protect themselves from distracted driving. Can be activated remotely, manual calling and texting features are disabled making it so the driver can only send and receive hands-free calls, texts, and emails. Other than Google Maps, apps are completely disabled. Android and Blackberry.
AT&T DriveMode (Free). Automatic, customized “busy” reply to incoming texts, also disabled incoming and outgoing calls as well as web. Users can make and receive calls from up to five people, use one music app, and one navigation app. The app can be turned off at anytime. Android and Blackberry.
DriveSafe.ly (Free/$7.99 monthly/$79.90 annually). Another enterprise software solution for companies to protect themselves and their employees, DriveSafe.ly automatically reads incoming texts and emails aloud in real time and sends an auto-response. SSL encryption keeps private communications secure, and multi-user discounts are available, too! iPhone, Android, Windows Mobile and Blackberry.
SafeCell ($11.99 one time). Auto-responds to calls and texts, uses GPS capability to notify driver of local cell phone usage laws, and records safe driving behavior which employers can monitor. iPhone and Android.
Economic Calendar for the Week of October 07 – October 11
|
Date
|
ET
|
Economic Report
|
For
|
Estimate
|
Actual
|
Prior
|
Impact
|
| Wed. October 09 |
02:00
|
FOMC Minutes |
9/18
|
NA
|
NA
|
HIGH
|
|
| Thu. October 10 |
08:30
|
Jobless Claims (Initial) |
9/28
|
318K
|
308K
|
Moderate
|
|
| Fri. October 11 |
08:30
|
Retail Sales |
Sept
|
-0.1%
|
0.2%
|
HIGH
|
|
| Fri. October 11 |
08:30
|
Retail Sales ex-auto |
Sept
|
0.2%
|
0.1%
|
HIGH
|
|
| Fri. October 11 |
08:30
|
Core Producer Price Index (PPI) |
Sept
|
0.1%
|
0.0%
|
Moderate
|
|
| Fri. October 11 |
08:30
|
Producer Price Index (PPI) |
Sept
|
0.2%
|
0.3%
|
Moderate
|
|
| Fri. October 11 |
10:00
|
Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM) |
Oct
|
74.5
|
77.5
|
Moderate
|
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Mortgage Info By Michelle Wickett 