Forecast for the Week
This week’s economic calendar is packed with a number of reports that will give investors a broad look at the U.S. economy.
- Right out of the gate on Monday, Pending Home Sales will be released. This will be followed by the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index on Tuesday.
- Also on Tuesday, look for Retail Sales for September and Consumer Confidence for October.
- A double dose of inflation news begins Tuesday with the wholesale-measuring Producer Price Index. The Consumer Price Index follows on Wednesday.
- Wednesday also brings the ADP Employment Report, followed by Weekly Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday.
- Ending the week, manufacturing data from the Chicago PMI and the ISM Index will be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively.
In addition, the next regularly scheduled meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee is Tuesday and Wednesday, with the Policy Statement set to be released Wednesday. Investors will be looking for any mention of when the Fed may taper its Bond purchases, and this news could move the markets.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.
When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving — and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.
To go one step further — a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.
As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds improved after the weaker than expected Jobs Report for September, helping keep home loan rates attractive. With a potential volatile week ahead due to the Fed meeting and heavy economic report calendar, I’ll be watching the news closely.
Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday October 25, 2013)

The Mortgage Market Guide View…
Smart Success
5 Secrets to Creating Better “Luck”
“Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.” Seneca
Richard Wiseman, psychologist and author of The Luck Factor, has spent years studying serendipity–also known as luck.
In one experiment, Dr. Wiseman asked subjects, “Are you a lucky person?” Yes or no.
Later on, he had each subject leaf through a newspaper to count the total number of photos inside and report their answer. Unbeknownst to the subjects, however, on the second page was a notice saying: “Stop counting–there are 43 photos in this newspaper.”
The result? Subjects who had answered “yes” to the luck question tended to see the notice, stop counting, and report the correct answer. Those who answered “no” tended to either miss the clue completely or dismiss it as a trick, continuing to count.
Here is where Wiseman discovered a key principle of success: People who consider themselves lucky are simply more open to already existing opportunity.
Here are five more success principles for creating luck in your life:
Opportunity is where you look. Seeing opportunity is less about “right place, right time” than it is about keeping your eyes open. If you don’t expect opportunity everywhere, you don’t look for it, and never see it coming–or going.
Try hard…but not too hard. While we all tend to associate unflinching determination with high-achievers, staying loose–even straying off course occasionally–attunes you to see more opportunities than does rigid focus.
Set the goals, not the road. Opportunity favors a relaxed approach. Once you’ve clarified the outcome you want, be open to the countless paths to its achievement.
What failure? Fear of making a mistake is a crippling habit. Flip your fear, and learn to see failure as a process of arrival–a learning opportunity in and of itself.
Try something new much more often. Playing it safe all the time is a recipe for regrets. The serendipitous tend to be fearless about discovery–even if it’s not the outcome they want to hear. So, instead of wondering what could have been, go and find out!
Let your luck rub off on somebody! Feel free to pass these tips along to your team, clients, and colleagues.
Economic Calendar for the Week of October 28 – November 01
Date
|
ET
|
Economic Report
|
For
|
Estimate
|
Actual
|
Prior
|
Impact
|
Mon. October 28 |
10:00
|
Pending Home Sales |
Sept
|
NA
|
-1.6%
|
Moderate
|
|
Tue. October 29 |
08:30
|
Retail Sales |
Sept
|
-0.1%
|
0.2%
|
HIGH
|
|
Tue. October 29 |
08:30
|
Retail Sales ex-auto |
Sept
|
0.2%
|
0.1%
|
HIGH
|
|
Tue. October 29 |
08:30
|
Core Producer Price Index (PPI) |
Sept
|
0.1%
|
0.0%
|
Moderate
|
|
Tue. October 29 |
08:30
|
Producer Price Index (PPI) |
Sept
|
0.2%
|
0.3%
|
Moderate
|
|
Tue. October 29 |
09:00
|
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index |
Aug
|
NA
|
12.0%
|
Moderate
|
|
Tue. October 29 |
10:00
|
Consumer Confidence |
Oct
|
NA
|
79.7
|
Moderate
|
|
Wed. October 30 |
08:15
|
ADP National Employment Report |
Oct
|
NA
|
166K
|
Moderate
|
|
Wed. October 30 |
08:30
|
Consumer Price Index (CPI) |
Sept
|
0.1%
|
0.1%
|
HIGH
|
|
Wed. October 30 |
08:30
|
Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) |
Sept
|
0.1%
|
0.1%
|
HIGH
|
|
Wed. October 30 |
02:00
|
FOMC Meeting |
Oct
|
NA
|
0.25%
|
HIGH
|
|
Thu. October 31 |
08:30
|
Jobless Claims (Initial) |
10/26
|
NA
|
NA
|
Moderate
|
|
Thu. October 31 |
09:45
|
Chicago PMI |
Oct
|
NA
|
55.7
|
HIGH
|
|
Fri. November 01 |
10:00
|
ISM Index |
Oct
|
NA
|
56.2
|
HIGH
|
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