MMG WEEKLY – WHAT ARE THEY SAYING THIS WEEK?

MMG Weekly / Vantage Production.blueForecast for the Week 

The Bond markets are closed on Monday in observance of Veterans Day while Stocks will be open for a regular session. The rest of the week features just a few economic data points.

  • The light economic calendar this week doesn’t kick off until Thursday with Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which continue to hover near the 340,000 range. Third quarter Productivity will also be released on Thursday.
  • Ending the week, there’s news from the manufacturing sector with the Empire State Index on Friday.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving — and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further — a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds plunged Friday after the October Jobs Report came in better than expected. Economic data points in the coming weeks will be especially important to monitor, as they will influence the Fed’s decision regarding its Bond purchases–which could impact home loan rates heading into 2014. I’ll be watching all the news closely for these details.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday November 08, 2013)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market Guide View… 

Hectic Holidays?
4 Gift Ideas for Busy Business People

Black Friday is just around the corner and after that, the busy holiday season. But just because others are fighting over the “next big thing” on the shelf, doesn’t mean shopping has to be hectic or expensive.

Instead of racking your brain at the last minute, trying to find that perfect gift to express your appreciation, just try these easy-to-get, inexpensive, but always appreciated gift ideas.

Gift Cards Aren’t Generic. Anyone who says a gift card is too impersonal has obviously never received one. It doesn’t get any more personal than giving someone the opportunity to pick out a gift they will want and use. Gift cards are always well received, and nowadays, offer hundreds of options. Find them at your local grocery or big-box retailer.

Chocolate Crazy. Diehard chocolate lovers swoon at the sight of a Godiva label and Godiva.com offers several gift selections for under $25. It’s not only a delicious product, but receiving chocolate in a little gold box is nearly as iconic as receiving jewelry in a little blue one!

Tickets for Two. For movie fanatics who can’t get enough, free tickets are an ideal gift. Combine this with idea number one above, and you’ve got the perfect “dinner and a movie” evening–and one very appreciative recipient.

A Case for Baskets. Putting together a gift basket for someone allows you to tailor the gift precisely to the interests of the person who’s receiving it–limitless themes and items will fit practically any budget.

Good luck and happy holiday shopping!

Economic Calendar for the Week of November 11 – November 15

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Thu. November 14
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
11/09
NA
NA
Moderate
Thu. November 14
08:30
Productivity
Q3
NA
2.3%
Moderate
Fri. November 15
08:30
Empire State Index
Oct
NA
1.5
HIGH

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