Forecast for the Week 
The upcoming week’s economic data is crammed into three trading days, given the Thanksgiving Holiday.
- Housing data is plentiful this week and kicks off on Monday with Pending Home Sales. Tuesday brings the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, as well as September and October data for Housing Starts and Building Permits. September’s Housing Starts and Building Permits were never reported due to the government shutdown.
- Tuesday also brings a read on Consumer Confidence, with the Consumer Sentiment Index following on Wednesday.
- Also on Wednesday, look for Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, and news from the manufacturing sector with Chicago PMI.
All capital markets will be closed on Thursday in observance of Thanksgiving. The Bond markets will be open on Friday and will close at 2:00 p.m. ET, while Stocks are also open and will close at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.
When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving – and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.
To go one step further – a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.
As you can see in the chart below, it was a volatile week for Bonds as the Fed minutes renewed talk of tapering the Fed’s Bond purchase program. I’ll be watching the markets closely in the coming weeks as more discussion on this topic is sure to continue.
Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday November 22, 2013)
The Mortgage Market Guide View…
Defeat the Treat!
3 Tips to Avoid Extra Holiday Pounds at the Office
The trouble begins about a week before Halloween–creepy containers of candy cajole us from every corner of the office, with leftovers long into November!
By the time serious holidaymaking comes around, there’s not just candy to deal with but cookies, pie, cake, fruitcake, banana/zucchini bread, and treats ad infinitum. Not to mention holiday parties and the very feast days themselves.
Avoiding holiday weight gain at the office takes more than maintaining a one-jelly-bean-per-page limit while you photocopy. Here are some great holiday weight-saving tips:
STEP 1: Draw your line in the sand before the goodies arrive. Knowing how much you can afford to indulge–specifically–is critical to success with any plan, but especially your diet. How will you know when you’ve had enough unless you set a specific limit?
Studies say be specific about your limits and you are two to three times more likely to meet them!
STEP 2: B.Y.O.S. Yes, bring your own snacks! Once you’ve reached your limit, you might actually still be hungry. So give yourself a huge boost by having a supply of healthy, flab-neutral things to eat instead. Keep fruit, nuts, and good proteins on hand at all times, so you have somewhere to turn when temptation strikes.
According to one study, thinking exclusively about not eating something increases the likelihood you’ll actually eat it!
STEP 3: Enjoying yourself gives wings to your every endeavor, including weight management. Taking time to relish your experiences is the key–that means don’t eat in meetings or when you’re busy, don’t swallow things whole or inhale them thoughtlessly.
Researchers suggest mindful enjoyment actually increases your happiness, and that’s great news for growing great habits, including self-control.
Help someone else defeat the treat! Feel free to pass these tips along to your team, clients, and colleagues.
Economic Calendar for the Week of November 25 – November 29
|
Date
|
ET
|
Economic Report
|
For
|
Estimate
|
Actual
|
Prior
|
Impact
|
| November 25 |
10:00
|
Pending Home Sales |
Oct
|
NA
|
-5.6%
|
Moderate
|
|
| November 26 |
08:30
|
Housing Starts |
Sept
|
915K
|
891K
|
Moderate
|
|
| November 26 |
08:30
|
Housing Starts |
Oct
|
NA
|
NA
|
Moderate
|
|
| November 26 |
08:30
|
Building Permits |
Sept
|
930K
|
918K
|
Moderate
|
|
| November 26 |
08:30
|
Building Permits |
Oct
|
NA
|
NA
|
Moderate
|
|
| November 26 |
09:00
|
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index |
Sept
|
NA
|
12.8%
|
Moderate
|
|
| November 26 |
10:00
|
Consumer Confidence |
Nov
|
NA
|
71.2
|
Moderate
|
|
| November 27 |
08:30
|
Jobless Claims (Initial) |
11/23
|
NA
|
323K
|
Moderate
|
|
| November 27 |
08:30
|
Durable Goods Orders |
Oct
|
NA
|
3.8%
|
Moderate
|
|
| November 27 |
08:30
|
Chicago PMI |
Nov
|
NA
|
65.9
|
Moderate
|
|
| November 27 |
10:00
|
Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM) |
Nov
|
NA
|
72.0
|
Moderate
|
The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.
Mortgage Market Guide, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated. Mortgage Market Guide, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email. You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.
Mortgage Info By Michelle Wickett 