Forecast for the Week 
Economic data is light this week and doesn’t kick off until Thursday.
- As usual, Thursday brings Weekly Initial Jobless Claims. Last week’s claims dropped below 300,000, though this figure could have been skewed by the Thanksgiving holiday.
- Also on Thursday, Retail Sales will be delivered and will show the health of consumer spending.
- The last report this week will be the Producer Price Index on Friday, which will reveal if there are any inflation pressures at the wholesale level.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.
When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving — and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.
To go one step further — a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.
As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates have worsened in recent weeks, as some positive economic reports have caused concern that the Fed will taper its Bond purchases sooner rather than later. I will continue to monitor this story for all the latest developments.
Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday December 06, 2013)
The Mortgage Market Guide View…
Time Tips
Taking the “Price” Out of Priceless
“I once asked a five-year-old what he would take with him if he were going to Heaven. He replied, ‘I would take my parents because I think that up there they would have more time with me.’… ’nuff said.” – Art Linkletter, TV Host
Time is a treasured commodity made more valuable because it is usually in short supply. When a day, an hour, or even one second passes, it cannot be returned. It is fixed. And it is finite.
What might seem to be stating the obvious is really a profound concept worth our reflection during hectic holidays. This season, regardless of which holiday you celebrate or if you celebrate any at all, remind yourself that the family, friends, and even coworkers and clients gathered around you probably crave your attention much more than any other gift.
The key is to consciously honor the person or event, to stay connected during your experience. This is all that “being in the moment” means, and it makes moments last. Consider setting aside a few hours for coffee with a friend. If you have kids, make a plan to take each one for their own special outing. Reserve some time each workday to call your favorite clients and colleagues, check-in, and personally wish them a happy holiday.
Our “to-do list” is always right where we left it, our schedule can remain the paragon of organization, and success will eagerly await our return! But somehow the importance of these things will seem somewhat diminished and somehow less important when first we realize how precious, how priceless, our time really is to others.
Feel free to pass these tips along to your team, clients, and colleagues!
Economic Calendar for the Week of December 09 – December 13
|
Date
|
ET
|
Economic Report
|
For
|
Estimate
|
Actual
|
Prior
|
Impact
|
| Thu. December 12 |
08:30
|
Jobless Claims (Initial) |
12/7
|
315K
|
298K
|
Moderate
|
|
| Thu. December 12 |
08:30
|
Retail Sales |
Nov
|
0.6%
|
0.4%
|
HIGH
|
|
| Thu. December 12 |
08:30
|
Retail Sales ex-auto |
Nov
|
0.3%
|
0.2%
|
HIGH
|
|
| Fri. December 13 |
08:30
|
Producer Price Index (PPI) |
Nov
|
-0.1%
|
-0.2%
|
Moderate
|
|
| Fri. December 13 |
08:30
|
Core Producer Price Index (PPI) |
Nov
|
0.1%
|
0.2%
|
Moderate
|
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Mortgage Info By Michelle Wickett 