Forecast for the Week 
This week’s packed economic calendar is filled with key reports each day.
- Monday brings news on Productivity for the third quarter and the Empire State Manufacturing Index. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will be reported on Thursday.
- Look for inflation news on Tuesday with the Consumer Price Index.
- Also on Tuesday, the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index will be released. More housing news follows on Wednesday with Housing Starts and Building Permits. Existing Home Sales will be delivered Thursday.
- As usual, Thursday brings Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and comes after last week’s big spike.
- On Friday, the final reading on Gross Domestic Product for the third quarter will be announced.
In addition, the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting begins on Tuesday and ends on Wednesday with the Fed’s monetary policy statement being delivered at 2:00 p.m. ET. All eyes will be watching to see if the Fed decides to begin tapering its Bond purchases.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.
When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving — and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.
To go one step further — a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.
As you can see in the chart below, volatility has been rampant, as some positive economic reports have caused concern that the Fed will taper its Bond purchases sooner rather than later. I will be watching the news closely this week to see what happens after the Fed meeting
Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday December 13, 2013)
The Mortgage Market Guide View…
Getting It In Writing
5 Steps to the Perfect Sales Email
Not all email is created equal, and that’s the reason you wouldn’t send the same email to a new prospect as you would your old Uncle Ned. If you’ve got something to sell–an idea, a meeting, a product, or even yourself–and you want to do it by email, keep these five step-by-step instructions handy:
STEP 1: Research Roundup. The first step in writing the perfect sales email is to not write anything until you’re prepared. It only takes a few minutes to Google the background of your recipient and gather other facts or trigger events to provide context and legitimate reasons for making contact.
STEP 2: Subject Scrutiny. You won’t close a deal on your first email, so focus exclusively on getting a response. The subject line has one purpose and one purpose only: to get the recipient to read your email. Be as direct as possible:
Question about [personalized topic] Idea for [something important to them] Fred Jones said I should get in touch Janet, quick question for you
STEP 3: For Openers. Don’t start by introducing yourself, start with something you noticed about them (a blog post or news item), something you have in common (mutual membership), or someone you both know–your reason for writing:
Janet, I noticed you…Bob, Fred Jones mentioned that…Mike, Congratulations on…
STEP 4: Connect the Dots. The main body of your email is where you should show your value. Remember, it’s all about response–so start a dialog by asking an insightful question. This highlights your value better than a long list of qualifications or product benefits.
STEP 5: Focused Farewell. In addition to “Sincerely” your salutation should be short, be in plain text with your contact info (no obtrusive logos), and include a link to one online profile of choice.
Feel free to pass these tips along to your team, clients, and colleagues.
Economic Calendar for the Week of December 16 – December 20
|
Date
|
ET
|
Economic Report
|
For
|
Estimate
|
Actual
|
Prior
|
Impact
|
| Thu. December 12 |
08:30
|
Jobless Claims (Initial) |
12/7
|
315K
|
298K
|
Moderate
|
|
| Thu. December 12 |
08:30
|
Retail Sales |
Nov
|
0.6%
|
0.4%
|
HIGH
|
|
| Thu. December 12 |
08:30
|
Retail Sales ex-auto |
Nov
|
0.3%
|
0.2%
|
HIGH
|
|
| Fri. December 13 |
08:30
|
Producer Price Index (PPI) |
Nov
|
-0.1%
|
-0.2%
|
Moderate
|
|
| Fri. December 13 |
08:30
|
Core Producer Price Index (PPI) |
Nov
|
0.1%
|
0.2%
|
Moderate
|
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Mortgage Info By Michelle Wickett 