Forecast for the Week 
Economic reports kick off on Tuesday and the calendar is busy the rest of the week.
- Tuesday brings the Retail Sales Report for December.
- Look for a double dose of manufacturing data with the Empire State Index on Wednesday and the Philadelphia Fed Index on Thursday.
- Inflation data from the Producer Price Index will be released on Wednesday, followed by the Consumer Price Index on Thursday.
- Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be reported on Thursday, as usual.
- Over in housing, look for the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index on Thursday. Housing Starts and Building Permits for December will be released on Friday.
- Friday will also feature the Consumer Sentiment Index for January.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.
When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving – and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.
To go one step further – a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.
As you can see in the chart below, the weak Jobs Report helped Bonds improve. I’ll be watching next week’s reports closely to see if they show signs that our economy is improving.
Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday January 10, 2014)
The Mortgage Market Guide View…
Guru Guide To Catch (and Keep) a Mentor
Getting a mentor isn’t only a smart way to learn, it can be a fast track to knowledge and experience in just about any endeavor you can imagine. With a great mentor, doors otherwise locked to you can swing wide open and shorten your path to success by many years.
If you’re looking for a mentor, here are some things to remember:
Deciding if you need a mentor is mainly a matter of knowing what you want to achieve most and the general direction you’d like to take. Stay open-minded if your mentor recommends another direction, but your objective should be the main goal. Consider carefully what you want the mentor to provide and how often you’d like to meet.
Make a list of potential mentors, follow them on Twitter or other social media and notice any potential personality conflicts. Aim as high up the ladder as you can-even someone you think is out of reach, too rich, or too famous may have an opening for an assistant. Use LinkedIn and Google to find candidates.
Write a letter of introduction and sign it by hand. Don’t introduce yourself by email. If you want to make absolutely sure your message gets to your prospective mentor send it FedEx Overnight.
If you get a YES then arrange to meet as soon as it’s convenient. And if the first meeting goes well, arrange for next steps.
Watch out for unintentional bad advice that can stall your progress. A recent Harvard Business Review article shares the most common ways a mentor’s advice can go wrong, including:
- Reacting unfavorably if you take a side-path the mentor has not taken.
- Choices you make that affect your mentor negatively in a material way, say financially, that could alter otherwise sound advice.
- Taking advice from someone with dissimilar tolerances for risk than you.
- Knowing more than your mentor about certain things-take it into account before accepting advice wholesale.
Try to add value to your mentor making the relationship mutually beneficial. When you “arrive” don’t forget to show appreciation to the people who helped you along the way.
Feel free to pass these tips along to your team, clients, and colleagues!
Economic Calendar for the Week of January 13 – January 17
|
Date
|
ET
|
Economic Report
|
For
|
Estimate
|
Actual
|
Prior
|
Impact
|
| Tue. January 14 |
08:30
|
Retail Sales |
Dec
|
NA
|
0.7%
|
HIGH
|
|
| Tue. January 14 |
08:30
|
Retail Sales ex-auto |
Dec
|
NA
|
0.4%
|
HIGH
|
|
| Wed. January 15 |
08:30
|
Producer Price Index (PPI) |
Dec
|
NA
|
-0.1%
|
Moderate
|
|
| Wed. January 15 |
08:30
|
Core Producer Price Index (PPI) |
Dec
|
NA
|
0.1%
|
Moderate
|
|
| Wed. January 15 |
08:30
|
Empire State Index |
Jan
|
NA
|
1.0
|
Moderate
|
|
| Wed. January 15 |
02:00
|
Beige Book |
Jan
|
NA
|
NA
|
Moderate
|
|
| Thu. January 16 |
08:30
|
Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) |
Dec
|
NA
|
0.2%
|
HIGH
|
|
| Thu. January 16 |
08:30
|
Consumer Price Index (CPI) |
Dec
|
NA
|
0.0%
|
HIGH
|
|
| Thu. January 16 |
08:30
|
Jobless Claims (Initial) |
1/11
|
NA
|
330K
|
Moderate
|
|
| Thu. January 16 |
10:00
|
Philadelphia Fed Index |
Jan
|
NA
|
7.0
|
HIGH
|
|
| Thu. January 16 |
10:00
|
Housing Market Index |
Jan
|
NA
|
58
|
Moderate
|
|
| Fri. January 17 |
08:30
|
Housing Starts |
Dec
|
NA
|
1091K
|
Moderate
|
|
| Fri. January 17 |
08:30
|
Building Permits |
Dec
|
NA
|
1007K
|
Moderate
|
|
| Fri. January 17 |
10:00
|
Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM) |
Jan
|
NA
|
82.5
|
Moderate
|
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Mortgage Info By Michelle Wickett 