MMG WEEKLY – WHAT ARE THEY SAYING THIS WEEK?

MMG Weekly / Vantage Production.blueForecast for the Week

This week’s economic calendar is packed with important data on housing, inflation, and economic growth.

  • Housing data is plentiful this week with the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index and New Home Sales being reported on Tuesday. Pending Home Sales follows on Thursday.
  • We’ll get a read on consumer attitudes towards the U.S. economy with Consumer Confidence on Tuesday and the Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday.
  • Wednesday brings February’s Durable Goods Orders, which are orders for items that last for an extended period of time.
  • Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be released as usual on Thursday. Also look for the final reading of Gross Domestic Product for the fourth quarter of 2013.
  • Ending the week, the inflation-reading Personal Consumption Expenditures data along with Personal Income and Personal Spending will be delivered on Friday.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving – and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further – a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds worsened after the Fed meeting but were able to stabilize. Home loan rates remain near historic best levels and I will continue to monitor them closely.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday March 21, 2014)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

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Check your local stats and feel free to pass this resource along to your team, clients, and colleagues.

Economic Calendar for the Week of March 24 – March 28

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Tue. March 25
09:00
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Jan
NA
13.4%
Moderate
Tue. March 25
10:00
Consumer Confidence
Mar
NA
78.1
Moderate
Tue. March 25
10:30
New Home Sales
Feb
NA
468K
Moderate
Wed. March 26
08:30
Durable Goods Orders
Feb
NA
-1.0%
Moderate
Thu. March 27
08:30
GDP Chain Deflator
Q4
NA
1.6%
Moderate
Thu. March 27
08:30
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Q4
NA
2.4%
Moderate
Thu. March 27
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
3/22
NA
NA
Moderate
Thu. March 27
10:00
Pending Home Sales
Feb
NA
0.1%
Moderate
Fri. March 28
08:30
Personal Income
Feb
NA
0.3%
Moderate
Fri. March 28
08:30
Personal Spending
Feb
NA
0.4%
Moderate
Fri. March 28
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
Feb
NA
0.1%
HIGH
Fri. March 28
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
YOY
NA
1.1%
HIGH
Fri. March 28
10:00
Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)
Mar
NA
79.9
Moderate

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

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