MMG WEEKLY – WHAT ARE THEY SAYING THIS WEEK?

MMG Weekly / Vantage Production.blueForecast for the Week

After last week’s quiet economic calendar, this week features an array of reports touching on key segments of the economy.

  • Economic data comes right out of the gate on Monday with Retail Sales, which is a measure of consumer spending.
  • On Tuesday, we’ll get a read on inflation at the consumer level with the Consumer Price Index.
  • Look for key manufacturing data on Tuesday with the Empire State Index, followed by the Philadelphia Fed Index on Thursday.
  • Housing numbers from the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index will be reported on Tuesday, while Housing Starts and Building Permits for March follow on Wednesday. These reports may show if the soft numbers earlier this year were due to the harsh winter weather—or if they were the start of a downtrend.
  • As usual, weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be released on Thursday.

All capital markets will be closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday. In addition, the Bond markets will close early on Thursday at 2:00 p.m. EDT.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving—and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further—a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds were able to improve last week. With a busy economic calendar ahead, I’ll be watching the markets closely this week.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday April 11, 2014)

Japanese Candlestick Chart
The Mortgage Market Guide View…

IRS Warns of E-mail Tax Scam
Watch out for bogus e-mails claiming there’s a problem with your 2013 tax return.
By Cameron Huddleston, Kiplinger.com

If you get an e-mail that appears to be from the IRS and claims that there is a problem with your 2013 tax return, do not respond. It’s the latest scam to surface this tax season.

Scammers are sending phishing e-mails that appear to be from the IRS Taxpayer Advocate Service and warn taxpayers that their 2013 income has been flagged for review due to a document processing error, according to the IRS.

To resolve the issue, recipients are instructed to contact the IRS Taxpayer Advocate Service by clicking on a link within the e-mail. The link supposedly provides information about the taxpayer advocate assigned to their case or allows taxpayers to review their reported income. However, the IRS reports that the link actually leads to a Web site that solicits personal information—which thieves can use to steal your identity or access your accounts.

Although the Taxpayer Advocate Service is a legitimate entity, it does not initiate contact with taxpayers by e-mail, text or any social media network—nor does the IRS. If you receive an e-mail that appears to be from the IRS or Taxpayer Advocate Service, do not reply to it and do not click on any links within the e-mail. Forward the e-mail to the IRS at phishing@irs.gov.

Also beware of phone scams during tax season. Scammers have been calling people across the country claiming that they owe money to the IRS and making threats including arrest if they don’t pay up, according to the IRS. Learn more about this phone scam as well as steps to take to lower your risk of fraud during tax season.

Reprinted with permission. All Contents ©2014
The Kiplinger Washington Editors. Kiplinger.com.

Economic Calendar for the Week of April 14 – April 18

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Mon. April 14
08:30
Retail Sales
Mar
NA
0.3%
HIGH
Mon. April 14
08:30
Retail Sales ex-auto
Mar
NA
0.3%
HIGH
Tue. April 15
08:30
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Mar
NA
0.1%
HIGH
Tue. April 15
08:30
Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Mar
NA
0.1%
HIGH
Tue. April 15
08:30
Empire State Index
Apr
NA
5.6
Moderate
Tue. April 15
10:00
Housing Market Index
Apr
NA
47
Moderate
Wed. April 16
08:30
Housing Starts
Mar
NA
907K
Moderate
Wed. April 16
08:30
Building Permits
Mar
NA
1.018K
Moderate
Wed. April 16
02:00
Beige Book
Apr
NA
NA
Moderate
Thu. April 17
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
4/12
NA
300K
Moderate
Thu. April 17
10:00
Philadelphia Fed Index
Apr
NA
9.0
HIGH

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

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