Forecast for the Week

The second half of the week heats up with several key reports.

• Economic data is on the light side this week and doesn’t begin until Thursday’s release of weekly Initial Jobless Claims.
• Also on Thursday, Retail Sales for May will be released.
• On Friday, the Producer Price Index for May will be closely watched after April’s numbers revealed inflation pressures.
• Preliminary Consumer Sentiment for June will also be reported Friday.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving—and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further—a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds rallied late in the week, helping home loan rates remain near historic best levels. I’ll be watching closely to see if additional rallying continues.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday June 6, 2014)

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Password Protection Primer

A few weeks ago, a high-profile cyber attack on eBay resulted in hundreds of thousands of people worried about the security of their accounts. This incident is a great reminder that there are some important and easy password practices you can follow to help keep your accounts secure.

Mix it up. The same password should never be used across multiple sites or accounts, but unfortunately many people follow this practice—even with very valuable information like bank accounts.

Password creation secrets. The longer (between 8-14 characters) and more random (do not use words that can be looked up in a dictionary), the harder your password will be to crack. You should use a mix of numbers, symbols and letters in both lower and upper cases. It is also advisable to change your passwords every month at a minimum, especially for your bank accounts.

Don’t forget. Nearly 58 percent of adults have 5 or more online passwords, and 8 percent have over 21 passwords. If you’d rather not memorize them, try a password management app such as LastPass or Password Genie, which can auto capture, randomize, categorize and store all your passwords so they stay private. Not only will this create an additional layer of protection for your accounts, you’ll never forget your passwords!

Keep your passwords safe, and please feel free to pass these tips along to your team, clients and colleagues!

Date	ET	Economic Report	For	Estimate	Actual	Prior	Impact
Thu. June 12	08:30	Jobless Claims (Initial)	6/07	NA		NA	Moderate
Thu. June 12	08:30	Retail Sales	May	NA		0.1%	HIGH
Thu. June 12	08:30	Retail Sales ex-auto	May	NA		0.0%	HIGH
Fri. June 13	08:30	Producer Price Index (PPI)	May	NA		0.6%	Moderate
Fri. June 13	08:30	Core Producer Price Index (PPI)	May	NA		0.5%	Moderate
Fri. June 13	10:00	Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)	Jun	NA		81.9	Moderate

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