Forecast for the Week

A busy week is ahead, with key reports on housing, inflation, consumer confidence and the state of the U.S. economy.

• Housing data is plentiful this week, beginning with Existing Home Sales on Monday. Look for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index and New Home Sales on Tuesday.
• Also on Tuesday, we’ll get a read on how consumers are feeling with Consumer Confidence for June. The Consumer Sentiment Index will be released on Friday.
• On Wednesday, the final reading for first quarter Gross Domestic Product will be closely watched. Also look for Durable Goods, which measure orders for products that last an extended period of time.
• Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be announced on Thursday, along with Personal Income, Personal Spending, and Personal Consumption Expenditures, a key inflation measure.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving—and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further—a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds have been holding steady in a sideways pattern. Home loan rates remain near historic lows and I’ll continue to monitor them closely.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday June 20, 2014)

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

Inspire Clients and Colleagues With Better Business Storytelling

Telling a good story isn’t always easy. But learning to tell a good story is imperative for leadership, improved communication skills and succeeding in business today.

In fact, Daniel Goleman sheds some light on this in the opening paragraph of his book, Primal Leadership. Goleman writes, “Great leaders move us. They ignite our passion and inspire the best in us.”

Speaker, agent for social change, catalyst and author Kevin Carroll says that one of the main ways leaders move us is through their ability to tell stories. As he explains it, leaders must communicate a variety of information to people, but the best leaders have learned to attach meaning to the information they communicate, so their listeners become invested and motivated by what’s said.

The bottom line: Storytelling helps great leaders reach people, inspire people and galvanize people around an idea so that the idea becomes a reality.

Need some storytelling help? Turn to the pros: Pixar’s 22 Rules of Phenomenal Storytelling are listed right here on a handy, easy to read infographic.

As always, feel free to pass these tips along to your team and colleagues to help them improve their storytelling and communication skills!

Date	ET	Economic Report	For	Estimate	Actual	Prior	Impact
Mon. June 23	10:00	Existing Home Sales	May	NA		4.65M	Moderate
Tue. June 24	09:00	S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index	Apr	NA		12.4%	Moderate
Tue. June 24	10:00	New Home Sales	May	NA		433K	Moderate
Tue. June 24	10:00	Consumer Confidence	Jun	NA		83.0	Moderate
Wed. June 25	08:30	Gross Domestic Product (GDP)	Q1	NA		-1.0%	Moderate
Wed. June 25	08:30	GDP Chain Deflator	Q1	NA		1.3%	Moderate
Wed. June 25	08:30	Durable Goods Orders	May	NA		0.6%	Moderate
Thu. June 26	08:30	Jobless Claims (Initial)	6/21	NA		312K	Moderate
Thu. June 26	08:30	Personal Income	May	NA		0.3%	Moderate
Thu. June 26	08:30	Personal Spending	May	NA		-0.1%	Moderate
Thu. June 26	08:30	Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE	May	NA		0.2%	HIGH
Thu. June 26	08:30	Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE	YOY	NA		1.4%	HIGH
Fri. June 27	10:00	Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)	Jun	NA		81.2	Moderate

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