MMG WEEKLY: WHAT ARE THEY SAYING THIS WEEK?

MMG Weekly / Vantage Production.blueForecast for the Week

The calendar is jam-packed with reports across many sectors of the economy.

  • Housing data kicks off the week on Monday with Pending Home Sales for June, followed by the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index on Tuesday.
  • Also on Tuesday, look for July’s Consumer Confidence reading. The Consumer Sentiment Index for July will be released on Friday.
  • Wednesday brings important news on the state of the economy with the first reading on second quarter Gross Domestic Product.
  • Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be released on Thursday, along with the second quarter Employment Cost Index.
  • We’ll get news from the manufacturing sector on Thursday with July’s Chicago PMI data, followed by the ISM Index on Friday.
  • Also on Friday, look for June’s reading of Personal Income, Personal Spending and Personal Consumption Expenditures (the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation).
  • And last but certainly not least, Friday also brings the July Jobs Report, which includes Non-farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate.

In addition, the Fed’s next two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee begins on Tuesday, culminating with the Policy Statement Wednesday afternoon. The big question is whether the Fed will continue to taper its Bond buying program. Fed members have been hinting that the program will end sometime in mid-October, and this news has the potential to move the markets.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving—and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further—a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds had good and bad days last week, as the mix of news has led to peak and valley trading. All in all, home loan rates remain near their best levels this year and I’ll continue to monitor them.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday July 25, 2014)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

6 Ways to Expand Your Network

Networking is all about sharing relationships, information and support. But many people play it overly safe, never venturing into new territory or testing their comfort zones in networks outside those they’ve already established.

Here are six ways to help expand your network:

Volunteer your time with an organization you care about. It only takes a few hours a month, supports a great cause, and you’ll meet new people who care about the same things you do.

Partner up at networking events. Drawing others into a conversation is easier if you’re attending with someone you know, especially if they’re in an industry with which you’re unfamiliar.

Check in regularly with your alumni chapter. Graduates of your alma mater with different majors and career paths are often happy to introduce you to people you wouldn’t otherwise meet.

Host your own event. Attending other events is great, but it can put you on the outside looking in. When the event is yours, you can be the natural focus, meeting lots of new people simply by welcoming them.

Read everything in the niche you want to enter. Read trade journals and blogs, or join a LinkedIn group and follow it. Become an expert yourself, and then people will follow you.

Join a business organization. Groups like Vistage and Sage, among others, bring together leaders from diverse markets and experiences to provide feedback, help with goals and decision making, and may even lead to profitable long-term business relationships.

Give these helpful tips a try and watch how fast your network grows. And as always, feel free to pass these tips along to your team, clients and colleagues

Economic Calendar for the Week of July 28 – August 1

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Mon. July 28
10:00
Pending Home Sales
Jun
NA
6.1%
Moderate
Tue. July 29
09:00
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
May
NA
10.8%
Moderate
Tue. July 29
10:00
Consumer Confidence
Jul
NA
85.2
Moderate
Wed. July 30
08:15
ADP National Employment Report
Jul
NA
281K
HIGH
Wed. July 30
08:30
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Q2
NA
-2.9%
Moderate
Wed. July 30
08:30
GDP Chain Deflator
Q2
NA
1.3%
Moderate
Wed. July 30
02:00
FOMC Meeting
Jul
NA
0.25%
HIGH
Thu. July 31
08:30
Employment Cost Index (ECI)
Q2
NA
0.3%
HIGH
Thu. July 31
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
7/26
NA
284K
Moderate
Thu. July 31
09:45
Chicago PMI
Jul
NA
62.6
HIGH
Fri. August 01
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
YOY
NA
1.5%
HIGH
Fri. August 01
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
Jun
NA
0.2%
HIGH
Fri. August 01
08:30
Personal Spending
Jun
NA
0.2%
Moderate
Fri. August 01
08:30
Personal Income
Jun
NA
0.4%
HIGH
Fri. August 01
08:30
Hourly Earnings
Jul
NA
0.2%
HIGH
Fri. August 01
08:30
Average Work Week
Jul
NA
34.5
HIGH
Fri. August 01
08:30
Unemployment Rate
Jul
NA
6.1%
HIGH
Fri. August 01
08:30
Non-farm Payrolls
Jul
NA
288K
HIGH
Fri. August 01
10:00
Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)
Jul
NA
81.3
Moderate
Fri. August 01
10:00
ISM Index
Jul
NA
55.3
HIGH

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

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