Forecast for the Week

The calendar is jam-packed with reports across many sectors of the economy.

• Housing data kicks off the week on Monday with Pending Home Sales for June, followed by the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index on Tuesday.
• Also on Tuesday, look for July’s Consumer Confidence reading. The Consumer Sentiment Index for July will be released on Friday.
• Wednesday brings important news on the state of the economy with the first reading on second quarter Gross Domestic Product.
• Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be released on Thursday, along with the second quarter Employment Cost Index.
• We’ll get news from the manufacturing sector on Thursday with July’s Chicago PMI data, followed by the ISM Index on Friday.
• Also on Friday, look for June’s reading of Personal Income, Personal Spending and Personal Consumption Expenditures (the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation).
• And last but certainly not least, Friday also brings the July Jobs Report, which includes Non-farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate.

In addition, the Fed’s next two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee begins on Tuesday, culminating with the Policy Statement Wednesday afternoon. The big question is whether the Fed will continue to taper its Bond buying program. Fed members have been hinting that the program will end sometime in mid-October, and this news has the potential to move the markets.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving—and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further—a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds had good and bad days last week, as the mix of news has led to peak and valley trading. All in all, home loan rates remain near their best levels this year and I’ll continue to monitor them.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday July 25, 2014)

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

6 Ways to Expand Your Network

Networking is all about sharing relationships, information and support. But many people play it overly safe, never venturing into new territory or testing their comfort zones in networks outside those they’ve already established.

Here are six ways to help expand your network:

Volunteer your time with an organization you care about. It only takes a few hours a month, supports a great cause, and you’ll meet new people who care about the same things you do.

Partner up at networking events. Drawing others into a conversation is easier if you’re attending with someone you know, especially if they’re in an industry with which you’re unfamiliar.

Check in regularly with your alumni chapter. Graduates of your alma mater with different majors and career paths are often happy to introduce you to people you wouldn’t otherwise meet.

Host your own event. Attending other events is great, but it can put you on the outside looking in. When the event is yours, you can be the natural focus, meeting lots of new people simply by welcoming them.

Read everything in the niche you want to enter. Read trade journals and blogs, or join a LinkedIn group and follow it. Become an expert yourself, and then people will follow you.

Join a business organization. Groups like Vistage and Sage, among others, bring together leaders from diverse markets and experiences to provide feedback, help with goals and decision making, and may even lead to profitable long-term business relationships.

Give these helpful tips a try and watch how fast your network grows. And as always, feel free to pass these tips along to your team, clients and colleagues

Economic Calendar for the Week of July 28 – August 1

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