Forecast for the Week
The second half of the week heats up with several important reports.
- On Wednesday, we’ll learn key details about consumer spending habits with Retail Sales for July.
- Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be released, as usual, on Thursday. Last week’s number hit lows not seen since before the recession.
- Friday’s packed calendar includes July’s Producer Price Index, which measures inflation at the wholesale level. Also look for the Empire State Manufacturing Index and Consumer Sentiment Index for August.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.
When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving—and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.
To go one step further—a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.
As you can see in the chart below, geopolitical headlines have helped Mortgage Bonds improve. Home loan rates remain near some of the best levels of the year and I will continue to monitor them closely.
Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday August 8, 2014)

The Mortgage Market Guide View…
4 Tips to Recharge Your Job Satisfaction
With the amount of time people spend working, job satisfaction is an important part of life. If you ever find yourself in a rut, here are four tips that can help.
Keep your eyes on the prize. Measurable goals (like number of homes built or percent increase in revenue) are key to business success. Equally important is translating how goals represent something invaluable (like dreams realized and happy families). Tie measurable goals to the bigger picture and focus on that vision to inspire you.
Set boundaries and expectations. Technology expanded the workday with anytime, anywhere access to email and calls. Clearly, the lines between professional and personal time have blurred—and both sides can suffer from lack of focused attention. So what’s the solution? Set specific, appropriate work hours. In email and voicemail messages, let others know your work hours and a realistic timeline of how quickly you’ll respond. Condition yourself to not constantly check emails and voicemails when you are off work—or, at the very least, commit to a schedule (e.g., after the kids are in bed or after your favorite TV show).
Schedule a Power Hour. An uninterrupted hour each week will recharge you. Use a Friday Power Hour to organize and prioritize for the next week. Use a midweek Power Hour to catch up on industry reading or write handwritten notes to clients.
Create new challenges. Join an organization to meet new people and gain a fresh perspective. Present a seminar with community education or at a local club to share your expertise. Start a blog and commit to at least one 250-word weekly post.
These four tips can reignite your passion for what you do. As always, please feel free to pass them along to your team, colleagues and clients!
Sources: ehow.com, entrepreneur.com, forbes.com, humanresources.com, inc.com, mayoclinic.org
Economic Calendar for the Week of August 11 – August 15
Date
|
ET
|
Economic Report
|
For
|
Estimate
|
Actual
|
Prior
|
Impact
|
Wed. August 13 |
08:30
|
Retail Sales |
Jul
|
NA
|
0.2%
|
HIGH
|
|
Wed. August 13 |
08:30
|
Retail Sales ex-auto |
Jul
|
NA
|
0.4%
|
HIGH
|
|
Thu. August 14 |
01:00
|
Jobless Claims (Initial) |
8/09
|
NA
|
289K
|
Moderate
|
|
Fri. August 15 |
01:00
|
Producer Price Index (PPI) |
Jul
|
NA
|
0.4%
|
Moderate
|
|
Fri. August 15 |
01:00
|
Core Producer Price Index (PPI) |
Jul
|
0.2%
|
0.2%
|
Moderate
|
|
Fri. August 15 |
08:30
|
Empire State Index |
Aug
|
15.5
|
25.6
|
HIGH
|
|
Fri. August 15 |
10:00
|
Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM) |
Aug
|
81.7
|
81.8
|
Moderate
|
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