Forecast for the Week
A full economic calendar is in store, with readings on housing, jobs, manufacturing, inflation, consumer spending and more.
- Economic data kicks off on Monday with Personal Income, Personal Spending and Personal Consumption Expenditures (the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation).
- In housing news, Pending Home Sales for August will be released on Monday. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index follows on Tuesday.
- Also on Tuesday, Consumer Confidence for September will be released.
- Look for manufacturing data on Tuesday via the Chicago PMI, followed by the ISM Index on Wednesday. The ISM Services Index, a national non-manufacturing index, will be released Friday.
- As usual, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be released on Thursday.
- And last but certainly not least, Friday brings the September Jobs Report, which includes Non-farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.
When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving—and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.
To go one step further—a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.
As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates improved in recent days, due in part to uncertainty overseas. I’ll continue to monitor them closely.
Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday September 26, 2014)
The Mortgage Market Guide View…
Insurance Against Air-Travel Snafus
New insurance will reimburse you for annoying inconveniences.
Who doesn’t have a complaint about flight delays, lost luggage or getting trapped on the tarmac? Now there’s insurance against these annoyances. Pay a flat fee of $25 for Berkshire Hathaway’s AirCare policy, and instead of getting a headache, you’ll get paid—as much as $1,000 in some cases.
The company tracks your flight through a real-time monitoring system and instantly wires money to your bank account if your flight triggers a claim. Missing a connection because of a flight delay will net you $500; waiting longer than 12 hours for checked luggage, $500; sitting on the tarmac for longer than two hours, $1,000; and lost luggage, $1,000. Luggage claims require a photo of a baggage claim ticket. Otherwise, payouts are instant and cumulative. A long tarmac delay that leads to a missed connection? That’s $1,500.
Some credit cards provide limited travel insurance at no cost. And AirCare doesn’t cover cancellations or medical emergencies, so it won’t replace standard travel insurance.
Before you buy: A recent monthly tally by the Department of Transportation shows that tarmac delays of more than two hours occurred in fewer than 1% of flights; 80% of flights took off on time.
By Kathryn Moody, Kiplinger.com
Reprinted with permission. All Contents ©2014 | The Kiplinger Washington Editors. Kiplinger.com
Economic Calendar for the Week of September 29 – October 3
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