MMG WEEKLY – WHAT ARE THEY SAYING THIS WEEK?

MMG Weekly / Vantage Production.blueForecast for the Week

A packed economic calendar is in store this week. Plus, the Fed meeting could cause volatility in the markets.

  • Housing news kicks off the week with Pending Home Sales on Monday, followed by the S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index on Tuesday.
  • Durable Goods Orders will also be released on Tuesday.
  • We’ll get a read on how consumers are feeling with Consumer Confidence on Tuesday and the Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday.
  • Thursday’s reports feature Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the first reading on Q3 Gross Domestic Product.
  • Friday brings Personal Income, Personal Spending, Personal Consumption Expenditures (inflation index), the Employment Cost Index, and Chicago PMI (a regional manufacturing report).

In addition, the Fed’s next two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee begins Tuesday, with the Monetary Policy Statement being released on Wednesday. Investors will be watching closely to see if the Fed fully tapers its ongoing Bond-buying program. This announcement has the potential to create volatility in the markets.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving–and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further–a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds remain near 18-month highs, helping home loan rates reach 18-month lows. I’ll continue to monitor them closely.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday October 24, 2014)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

3 Steps to Becoming an Expert

Peter Economy, management expert and co-author of the bestselling book, “Managing for Dummies,” says the secret to being more valuable at your job, revitalizing your career, or getting paid more is simple–become an expert. He recommends the following three steps to get there:

Step 1. Understand what you’re interested in. What you already know can put you within short reach of being an expert in your field (if you aren’t one already). This is the least time-intensive route. But if what you’re already doing no longer interests you, you must find something inspiring enough to make learning feel effortless.

Step 2. Focus on one thing at a time. Learn too many things at once and you’ll be overwhelmed and probably fail. Don’t move on to the next subject of your expertise until you feel comfortable with the one you’re working on now.

Step 3. Practice makes perfect. There’s no such thing as an overnight expert. Be willing to invest the time for:

  • Studying. Reading, taking courses, attending training or seminars, watching videos, hiring a mentor, and learning from other experts are all great avenues.
  • Applying. Getting practical experience will help you go deeper, work out the kinks, and fully explore your field of expertise.
  • Presenting. Documenting your findings with a journal or blog will help you understand even more facets of your expertise. If at all possible, write or speak about your trials and resolutions, teaching others about your journey.

Please feel free to pass these tips along to your team, clients and colleagues.

Source: Inc.com

Economic Calendar for the Week of October 27 – October 31

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Mon. October 27
10:00
Pending Home Sales
Sep
NA
-1.0%
Moderate
Tue. October 28
08:30
Durable Goods Orders
Sep
NA
-18.4%
Moderate
Tue. October 28
09:00
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Aug
NA
6.7%
Moderate
Tue. October 28
10:00
Consumer Confidence
Oct
NA
86.0
Moderate
Wed. October 29
02:00
FOMC Meeting
Oct
NA
0.25%
HIGH
Thu. October 30
08:30
GDP Chain Deflator
Q3
NA
2.1%
Moderate
Thu. October 30
08:30
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Q3
NA
4.6%
Moderate
Thu. October 30
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
10/25
NA
283K
Moderate
Fri. October 31
08:30
Personal Income
Sep
NA
0.3%
Moderate
Fri. October 31
08:30
Personal Spending
Sep
NA
0.5%
Moderate
Fri. October 31
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
Sep
NA
0.1%
HIGH
Fri. October 31
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
YOY
NA
1.5%
HIGH
Fri. October 31
08:30
Employment Cost Index (ECI)
Q3
NA
0.7%
HIGH
Fri. October 31
09:45
Chicago PMI
Oct
NA
60.5
HIGH
Fri. October 31
10:00
Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)
Oct
NA
86.4
Moderate

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

Mortgage Market Guide, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated. Mortgage Market Guide, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email. You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose. The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

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