Forecast for the Week

Important manufacturing, inflation and housing reports are ahead. Plus, the minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting will be released.

• Look for a double dose of manufacturing news, with the Empire State Index on Monday and the Philadelphia Fed Index on Thursday.
• Two key inflation reports are ahead. The wholesale-measuring Producer Price Index will be delivered on Tuesday, followed by the Consumer Price Index on Thursday.
• Housing news is abundant this week. The NAHB Housing Market Index comes out on Tuesday, Housing Starts and Building Permits will be released Wednesday, and Existing Home Sales follows on Thursday.
• As usual, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will also be announced on Thursday.

In addition, investors will be closely scrutinizing the minutes from the late October Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The minutes, which will be released on Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. EST, will reveal details of the Fed’s decision to end its latest round of Quantitative Easing. They could also give more clues as to the timing of rate hikes, which could lead to volatility in the markets.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving—and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further—a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds continue to trade in a sideways pattern. Home loan rates remain near 18-month lows and I will continue to monitor them closely.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday November 14, 2014)

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

5 Tips for Providing Constructive Feedback

Constructive feedback with colleagues and partners can yield more productive and meaningful work relationships. The next time something isn’t quite working well in a process or on a project, consider these five steps that can help.

1. Tie to a goal
Goals unite teams and provide direction. Whether you have a shared goal with a member of your network or know a colleague’s professional goal, tying feedback to that larger goal situates it in more meaningful context.

2. Ask permission
People get defensive if they are not prepared for feedback. Asking for permission puts individuals in a more open, receptive mindset.

3. Identify specific behavior
Isolating a specific behavior reinforces that constructive feedback is about a behavior and not the character or quality of the individual.

4. Offer concrete action steps
Detailed options to improve a behavior shift the conversation from the past to the future and how to best move forward.

5. Show support
End positively. Reiterate goals and values.

The following example illustrates how all five steps work together:

“Hi, John. I know we want to wrap up this project quickly, but can I mention something that could help us work more effectively?

A lot of interrelated tasks are happening at the same time. I don’t know the status of your tasks unless I leave a voicemail or send an email and wait for a response.

Could we chat on the phone each day for five minutes to keep each other in the loop? Or, could we send each other an email update each day?

I appreciate the partnership we have on this project and want to make sure nothing falls through the cracks.”

On a final note, emails lack non-verbal cues. Give feedback face-to-face or over the phone, so the recipient hears your voice or sees your facial expression to minimize reading into your message.

Sources: forbes.com, smallbusiness.chron.com

Economic Calendar for the Week of November 17 – November 21

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