Forecast for the Week

The first half of the week will be busy, with key reports on housing, inflation and economic growth.

• In the housing sector, Existing Home Sales for November will be released on Monday. November New Home Sales follow on Tuesday.
• The final reading on third quarter Gross Domestic Product will be closely watched when the numbers are delivered on Tuesday.
• Tuesday also brings several more key reports, including the Consumer Sentiment Index, Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income, Personal Spending and Personal Consumption Expenditures (the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation).
• Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be released on Wednesday instead of Thursday due to the Christmas holiday.

The Stock markets will close early at 1:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday, December 24, while the Bond markets will be closing at 2:00 p.m. EST. All markets will be closed on Thursday, December 25 in observance of Christmas. On Friday, December 26 there will be normal market hours.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving—and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further—a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds remain near 18-month highs, meaning home loan rates are still hovering near historic lows.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday December 19, 2014)

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

5 Ways to Say No

The holidays aren’t the only time of year people overcommit themselves—and being able to say no isn’t always easy. But there are ways to say no that make all the difference, and can help you preserve both your sanity and your relationships.

Christine Carter, Ph.D., sociologist, happiness expert at UC Berkeley’s Greater Good Science Center, and author of “The Sweet Spot: How to Find Your Groove at Home and Work” (coming January 2015) offers five effective ways to say no:

1. Vague but effective: “Thank you for asking, but that isn’t going to work out for me.”

2. Ask me later: “I want to do that, but I’m not available until April. Will you ask me again then?”

3. Keep trying: “None of those dates work for me, but I would love to see you. Send me some more dates.”

4. Try me last minute: “I can’t put anything else on my calendar this month, but I’d love to do that with you sometime. Will you call me right before you go again?”

5. Gratitude: “Thank you so much for your enthusiasm and support! I’m sorry I’m not able to help you at this time.”

If you’d like to find out even more effective ways you can say no, read Carter’s full article 21 Ways to “Give Good No.”

Please feel free to pass these great tips along to your team, clients and colleagues!

Source: Greater Good Science Center

Economic Calendar for the Week of December 22 – December 26

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