Forecast for the Week 
Economic data is plentiful this week, while the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the year will take place.
- Look for several key housing reports, including New Home Sales and the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index on Tuesday and Pending Home Sales on Thursday.
- Also on Tuesday, Durable Goods Orders for December will be released.
- We’ll get a sense of how consumers are feeling with Consumer Confidence on Tuesday and the Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday.
- As usual, Thursday brings Weekly Initial Jobless Claims.
- On Friday, look for the first reading on Q4 2014 Gross Domestic Product, theEmployment Cost Index, and manufacturing news via the Chicago PMI.
In addition, the FOMC meeting kicks off on Tuesday and will end Wednesday with the 2:00 p.m. EST release of the Fed’s monetary policy statement. This always has the potential to be a market mover—be sure to stay tuned!
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.
When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving—and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.
To go one step further—a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.
As you can see in the chart below, the Mortgage Bond market has been volatile of late. Home loan rates are still hovering near record lows, making now a great opportunity for anyone looking to purchase or refinance.
Chart: Fannie Mae 3.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday January 23, 2015)
4. Cue you are listening. Simple verbal cues like “uh-huh” and “okay” let the speaker know you are still present in the conversation. If you are in person, an occasional nod goes hand in hand with making eye contact.
6. Clarify. Ask questions that provide additional details about a situation. You can also clarify what actions or outcomes the speaker anticipated by having the conversation with you.
Please feel free to pass these great tips along to your team, clients and colleagues.
Economic Calendar for the Week of January 26 – January 30
|
Date
|
ET
|
Economic Report
|
For
|
Estimate
|
Actual
|
Prior
|
Impact
|
| Tue. January 27 |
08:30
|
Durable Goods Orders |
Dec
|
NA
|
-0.9%
|
Moderate
|
|
| Tue. January 27 |
09:00
|
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index |
Nov
|
NA
|
4.5%
|
Moderate
|
|
| Tue. January 27 |
10:00
|
Consumer Confidence |
Jan
|
NA
|
92.6
|
Moderate
|
|
| Tue. January 27 |
10:00
|
New Home Sales |
Dec
|
NA
|
438K
|
Moderate
|
|
| Wed. January 28 |
02:00
|
FOMC Meeting |
Jan
|
NA
|
0.25%
|
HIGH
|
|
| Thu. January 29 |
10:00
|
Pending Home Sales |
Dec
|
NA
|
0.8%
|
Moderate
|
|
| Thu. January 29 |
08:30
|
Jobless Claims (Initial) |
1/24
|
NA
|
NA
|
Moderate
|
|
| Fri. January 30 |
08:30
|
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) |
Q4
|
NA
|
5.0%
|
Moderate
|
|
| Fri. January 30 |
08:30
|
GDP Chain Deflator |
Q4
|
NA
|
1.4%
|
Moderate
|
|
| Fri. January 30 |
08:30
|
Employment Cost Index (ECI) |
Q4
|
NA
|
0.7%
|
HIGH
|
|
| Fri. January 30 |
09:45
|
Chicago PMI |
Jan
|
NA
|
58.3
|
HIGH
|
|
| Fri. January 30 |
10:00
|
Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM) |
Jan
|
NA
|
98.2
|
Moderat
|
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Mortgage Info By Michelle Wickett 