Forecast for the Week

Friday’s Jobs Report for February could be a major market mover. Plus, there’s important news on inflation, personal income and spending, and manufacturing.

• Right out of the gate on Monday, look for Personal Income, Personal Spending and Personal Consumption Expenditures (the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation).
• Also on Monday, there will be manufacturing news via the ISM Index. The ISM Services Index follows on Wednesday.
• Wednesday also brings the ADP Employment Report, the prelude to the government’s Jobs Report.
• On Thursday, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be released, as usual. Also look for Productivity for the fourth quarter of 2014.
• Friday is the big day with the February Jobs Report, which includes Non-farm Payrolls, Hourly Earnings and the Unemployment Rate.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving—and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further—a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds fell in February as Stocks performed well. Home loan rates edged higher but remain near historic best levels.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday February 27, 2015)

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

4 Ways to Boost Creative Thinking

To busy business people, creativity often sounds like a lofty and distant thing reserved for artists and musicians. But creative thinking is the antidote to many business problems—look no further than Apple computers for evidence! Here are four suggestions to help get those creative juices flowing:

1. Promote new ideas. Give yourself and your team permission to come up with ideas that could challenge how you “do things”. This can help you break through outdated paradigms, as well as reaffirm you’re doing some things right!

2. Cross-pollinate ideas. Visit a colleague’s business and find out how they work, or start a mastermind group to get fresh ideas.

3. Get help. Coaches and trainers can offer training and insights for boosting creative power for both individual and group settings. Workshops and consulting sessions can be motivating, morale boosting and give you tools for transformation.

4. Track and measure. When you or your team come up with a creative solution for a new business process, sales boost, or any other advancement, make sure to track its progress over time so that you will understand what works, what doesn’t work and why.

Please feel free to pass these creative tips along to your team, clients and colleagues!

Source: American Express Open Forum

Economic Calendar for the Week of March 2 – March 6

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