Forecast for the Week

Key reports on inflation, manufacturing and housing are ahead, along with the Jobs Report for March.

• The packed economic calendar will kick off on Monday with the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, Personal Consumption Expenditures, along with Personal Income and Personal Spending.
• In housing news, Pending Home Sales will be released Monday, followed by the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index on Tuesday.
• Also on Tuesday, we’ll get a read on Consumer Confidence.
• In the manufacturing sector, look for the Chicago PMI on Tuesday and the ISM Index on Wednesday.
• The first of two key labor market reports will be delivered on Wednesday with the ADP National Employment Report.
• As usual, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be released on Thursday.
• That brings us to Friday’s Jobs Report for March, which will be dissected to the fullest extent by investors around the globe. The Jobs Report includes Non-farm Payrolls, the Unemployment Rate and Hourly Earnings.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving—and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further—a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds worsened in recent days after rallying earlier this month. However, home loan rates remain near record lows.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday March 27, 2015)

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

Help! My Flight is Delayed!

Earlier this year, a Texas to Oklahoma flight scheduled to last 58 minutes turned into a 9-hour nightmare as the plane was delayed due to bad weather. While avoiding flight delays entirely may be impossible, there are some steps you can take before, during and after experiencing one.

Before you fly. Technology and big data to the rescue! FiveThirtyEight has analyzed 6 million flights and discovered which airports, airlines and routes are most likely to arrive on time. Check out your upcoming or future flights here.

Know your rights. Take a minute to review the specific details of your airline’s customer service plan (here are links for Delta, United, JetBlue and American Airlines). If your airline fails to meet its commitments, you can submit a complaint to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Aviation Consumer Protection Division.

If you get stranded. Visit the FlyersRights.org Help! I’m Stranded page for a list of helpful information, including airline phone numbers. If you can take a different flight, the Next Flight app lets you check for non-stop flights for the current day and following two days. In case you’re stuck, Priority Pass gives details on 700 airport VIP lounges, before you shell out membership fees.

Feel free to pass these helpful tips along to your team, clients and colleagues.

Economic Calendar for the Week of March 30 – April 3

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