Forecast for the Week

The fireworks could begin early in this holiday-shortened but jam-packed week.

• In the housing sector, Pending Home Sales will be released on Monday, followed by the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index on Tuesday.
• Look for manufacturing data from the Chicago PMI on Tuesday and the ISM Index on Wednesday.
• Consumer Confidence will also be released on Tuesday.
• The first of two key reports on the labor sector will be released on Wednesday with the ADP National Employment Report.
• Thursday is the big day with the June Jobs Report, which includes Non-farm Payrolls, Hourly Earnings and the Unemployment Rate. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will also be reported on Thursday, as usual.

All U.S. markets will be closed on Friday in observance of the July 4th holiday.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving—and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further—a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds have struggled in recent days. I’ll be watching closely to see if they’re able to bounce back in the days and weeks ahead.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday June 26, 2015)

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

6 Keys to Remarkable Success

“We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.” Aristotle, 345 B.C.

The myth that people are born talented is evaporating. The scientific community is at last catching up with what even Aristotle knew—the difference between success and non-success, skill and mediocrity, is a matter of dedication and time rather than innate ability.

But can the way you practice make a difference? Yes, says Tony Schwartz, author of “The Way We’re Working Isn’t Working,” who offers six principles for becoming really good at anything:

Pursue your passion. Passion will keep you motivated better than anything. If you can’t be passionate, find something else or you may burn out.

Hard work first. Most experts (and experts who study experts) say that practicing first thing in the morning when you have the most energy is best.

Practice intensely, but not too long. Working without interruption for short periods of no longer than 90 minutes with short breaks (and not longer than 4.5 hours each day) seems to be the norm for top performers.

Get feedback in small doses. Too much advice too frequently can impede learning and make you gun shy. Focus on your own experiments.

Refresh regularly. All work and no play … stinks! And it won’t help you in the long run. Plus, if it’s a breakthrough you want, rest is the best thing for activating your creative right hemisphere.

Ritualize practice. Time blocking ensures you don’t have to expend any energy thinking about when or how to work.

As always, feel free to pass these helpful tips along to your team, clients and colleagues!

Economic Calendar for the Week of June 29 – July 3

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