Forecast for the Week

Look for a full slate of reports across a broad spectrum of the economy, while the Fed meeting could shake things up.

• A key metric of the economy will be released in the form of Durable Goods Orders on Monday.
• The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index will be delivered on Tuesday, followed by Pending Home Sales on Wednesday.
• Look for Consumer Confidence on Tuesday and the Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday.
• Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be released on Thursday along with the closely-watched Gross Domestic Product report.
• On Friday, the Employment Cost Index and the Chicago PMI will be reported.

In addition, the two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting culminates with the Fed’’s Monetary Policy Statement on Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. EDT. This always has the potential to move the markets.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving——and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further——a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds have been on an upswing since mid-July. Home loan rates remain near historic lows.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday July 24, 2015)

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

The High Cost of Multitasking

Multitasking is a reality for busy professionals, but it’s actually not a productive way to work. MIT Neuroscientist Earl Miller cautions, “When people think they’re multitasking, they’re actually just switching from one task to another very rapidly. And every time they do, there’s a cognitive cost.”

According to a study by the University of London, those who multitasked while performing cognitive assignments saw their functional IQ decline, in some cases close to the level of an 8-year-old child. And if that wasn’t bad enough, the steady stream of dopamine released by your brain each time you switch tasks is quite addictive—and can lead to depression when you try to slow down.

Here are three easy ways to stop multitasking and retrain your brain:

1. Turn off notifications. If your devices alert you with a sound or display a pop-up when you receive a text, email, Tweet or Facebook mention, you may be conditioning your brain to desire random stimuli.
2. Schedule email and social media checks. Treat email and social media like you would any other task, checking them at scheduled, predetermined times during the day.
3. Put your smartphone away. Attempt to be fully present in meetings, business lunches, mealtimes with family or any time something else is happening. Your unusual focus will pay off with better insights and stronger relationships … and your brain will thank you!

As always, feel free to pass these helpful tips along to your team, clients and colleagues!

Sources: Inc., Bloomberg Business

Economic Calendar for the Week of July 27 – July 31

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